Image Source: PexelsHere’s a snapshot of nowcasts and forecasts as of today:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Summary of Economic Projections median (inverted light green triangle), GDPNow as of 9/18 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast as of 9/20 (red triangle), FT-Booth as of 9/14 (blue square), and August median SPF (tan), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Levels calculated by iterating growth rate on levels of GDP, except for Survey of Professional Forecasters. Source: BEA 2024Q2 2nd release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve September 2024 SEP and author’s calculations.One can see how the nowcasts have evolved by looking at the implied trajectories with intervening weeks.
Figure 2: GDP (bold black), GDPNow as of 9/18 (light blue square), as of 9/6 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast as of 9/20 (dark red line), as of 9/13 (light red line), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Levels calculated by iterating growth rate on levels of GDP. Source: BEA 2024Q2 2nd release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, and author’s calculations.More By This Author:State Employment Report For August Is Manufacturing In Recession?Where Will Mortgage Rates Go?
