SPX Monitoring purposes;Sold long 9/13/24 at 5626.02= gain 2.23%; Long SPX on 9/5/24 at 5503.41.Sold SPX on 8/19/24 at 5608.25 = Gain 8.14%gain; Long SPX on 8/5/24 at 5186.33.Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%Monitoring purposes GOLD:Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
We are up over 28% this year so far; SPX up around 20%. Sentiment leans bearish for the short term. The bottom window is the 10 day average of the Equity Put/Call ratio (CPCE). Reading below .58 lean bearish for the market (Current reading is .55). Next higher window is the 5 day average for the CPCE; a reading below .55 lean bearish, current reading is .52. We noted on chart above the times when both moving averages for the CPCE traded in bearish territory (noted with dotted line). The last five examples showed a stalled market or had a pullback. Join me on TFNN.com Tuesday 3:30 Eastern; Thursday 3:20 Eastern, Tune in.
The election is November 5 (about a month away). With such a close race in the polls with the candidates, things most likely will get wonky in the next four weeks. Markets don’t like uncertainly and a pull back in late October is possible until the market sees a clear winner, then from there up.The chart above suggests a pull back is likely. The second window up from the bottom is the weekly SPX/VIX ratio and next higher window is the weekly SPX. A negative divergence is present when the SPX makes higher highs and the SPX/VIX ratio makes lower highs, (noted is shaded pink). In the current market dating back to early July shows the negative divergence is present.   
The top window is the GDX and bottom window is the 50 day average of the up down volume percent for GDX. Uptrend in GDX are in force when the 50 day average of the up down volume is above “0” (current reading is +12.02; about the same reading as Friday’s which was +12.07). The 50 day up down volume indicators are signals that may last several months.There will be consolidation along the way in the current bull market but may last a couple of months or so, but higher highs and higher lows will be expected. We noted on the chart above is shaded green when this indicator is above “0”. The weekly and monthly charts for GDX remain bullish and signals of these types last for 1 ½ years to as long as four years. More By This Author:New Highs Later This Year
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