We kicked off the day with Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 2-Year Note Auction, 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10;30 A.M., 5-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Teasury Refunding Financing Estimates at 2:00 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.The US Food Price Index in September rose to a record high of 332.1. This was 0.4% higher than in August and the largest monthly increase in 8 months. The annualized food inflation rate rose 2.3%, which was also an 8-month high. The Jan-Sep inflation rate averaged 2.2% versus 6.8% last year. US food prices in the first 9 months of the year are at a record high. The USDA’s October forecasted for overall 2024 food inflation, which was released Friday, was in a range of 2.1-2.6%, with an average of 2.3%. The USDA’s forecast for 2025 food inflation remains in a wide range of -17.% to 6-7% with an average of 2.4%, which implies another year of record food prices.
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South American Weather DiscussionIs showing a a drier trend forecast in Argentina/ Southern Brazil, next 10 days, while monsoon remains active in Central and Northern Brazil. The Argentine corn crop this week is 29% planted, vs. 20% a year ago. The Argentina soybean crop will be planted in November with adequate soil moisture.
Dec CBOT Corn Rally Stumbles at Major Moving Average; Rally Slows Export Demand:World corn markets ended weaker on Friday as fund buying/short covering halted on a lack of new bullish input. Argentine up river fob premiums are down $0.3/Bu. US Gulf basis up $05. Mexico will remain a large US corn buyer, but non-traditional importer demand will be funneled back to Ukraine and South America in the short run. CBOT rallies shift export demand away from the US. Mato Grosso soybean planting if 56% planted. Safrinha seeding in February will be delayed only slightly. The market stays bound to a range until Dec-Jan weather is known: Managed fund’s net short on Wednesday was relatively small 71,000 contracts. Large scale fund short covering is not anticipated without several prolonged dryness in Argentina & S Brazil and a fund net long position is highly unlikely as China’s absence weighs on global corn trade. CBOT corn stays range bound until the US election has come and gone and December South American weather is known $4.30 Dec, and $4.45, March corn should be sold. Support rests at $390-$4.00.More By This Author:Exports-North & South America Weather & Yields. The Corn & Ethanol Report
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