Much of recent market commentary has been focused on market concentration concerns,¹ thanks to the dominance of mega-cap stocks in the U.S., with the S&P 500^® Top 50 outperforming the S&P 500 by 5% for the 12 months ending in September 2024.But as we’ve noted in our inaugural SPIVA^® Global Mid-Year 2024 Scorecard, concentration trends can manifest at a broader level than individual securities, and more specifically at a country level. The U.S. has significantly outperformed the rest of the world over the past decade, with a 10-year annualized return for the S&P World Index of 10.6%, compared to an equivalent return of 6.2% for the S&P World Ex-U.S. Index.As a result, the weight of the U.S. component of the S&P World Index has risen accordingly, from 47% in June 2009 to over 70% as of the end of September 2024.Turning our attention to the superpower on the other side of the globe, China’s weight in our emerging market benchmark, the S&P/IFCI Composite, declined from a peak of 37% in 2020 to 24% in June 2024 given the market’s economic and real estate woes. Since then, its weight rebounded to 27% as of September 2024, as China’s market staged a dramatic rally, with the S&P China BMI outperforming the S&P Emerging Ex-China BMI by 8% YTD through September.
So how did global equity active managers fare in this environment of contrasting U.S. and China performances in the first half of 2024? Our report shows that 71% of U.S.-domiciled Global Equity funds underperformed the S&P World Index, consistent with what we would expect from funds that systematically underweight the U.S. Meanwhile, international managers who gained outside-benchmark U.S. exposures may have benefited, as only 56% of U.S.-based international funds underperformed the S&P World Ex-U.S. Index.Exhibit 2 shows that underperformance rates for the Global Equity (USD) category historically tended to worsen with U.S. outperformance. For global funds domiciled in Europe, Japan, Canada and Australia, the results were even bleaker, with 72%-82% of funds underperforming, perhaps because they were even more underweight the U.S. than their U.S.-domiciled counterparts. Underweighting the U.S. by these managers could potentially be due to home bias tendencies² and a greater proclivity for domestic exposures.
Conversely, country dynamics were likely more accommodating for emerging market equity managers. Despite stock-level concentration headwinds consistent with those observed in the U.S., emerging market managers who were underweight to China may have benefited from the country’s poor performance. The S&P Emerging BMI underperformed the S&P Emerging Ex-China BMI by 2.5% in H1 2024.In addition, Exhibit 3 illustrates that managers who tilted outside of their emerging market universe into developed markets, including the outperforming U.S. market, could have benefited considerably, as the S&P Developed BMI outperformed the S&P Emerging BMI by 2.6% over the same period. Perhaps capitalizing on both of these tailwinds, the U.S. Emerging Market Funds category posted majority outperformance, with 54% outperforming the benchmark S&P/IFCI Composite. The European-domiciled emerging market category fared slightly worse, with 55% of funds underperforming the benchmark.
Overall, the stellar performance of the U.S. compared to the rest of the world, coupled with China’s underperformance, may have led to mixed results across the Global Equity and Emerging Market Equity active fund categories during the first half of 2024. Although China’s rally has pulled back recently, if its turnaround is sustained, the tailwinds from an underweight to China may turn into potential headwinds for emerging market managers, the results of which we will have to wait to uncover once our year-end scorecards are released. Until then, dig deeper into how active funds across our reported categories and across regions fared in our SPIVA^® Global Mid-Year 2024 Scorecard.¹ Iacurci, Greg, “Is the U.S. stock market too ‘concentrated’? Here’s what to know,” CNBC, July 1, 2024.² Issifu, Sherifa, “Connecting the S&P/ASX 200 to U.S. Equity Icons,” S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, June 2023.More By This Author:Did Stock Pickers Struggle? Can Bond Managers Boast? The Mid-Year SPIVA Results Are InThe S&P/BMV IPC During Each Presidential Administration In MexicoCreative Cacophony