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EUR/USD continues to backslide following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) quarter-point rate trim early Thursday. A lack of bullish momentum has Fiber extending near-term losses, and the pair is down over 3.5% from late September’s peak bids just above 1.1200.The ECB trimmed its reference rates exactly in-line with median market forecasts, delivering a 25 bps cut to its Rate on Deposit Facility and Main Refinancing Operations Rate, easing the reference rates to 3.25% and 3.4%, respectively. As if the Euro didn’t have enough support as it is, Europe’s final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation for the year ended September also declined more than expected, with the final print coming in at just 1.7% YoY compared to the expected 1.8%.All that remains on the EU-centric economic data docket is Friday’s upcoming EU Leadership Summit, but the event is unlikely to spark much confidence in the Euro as policymakers grapple with a lopsided economy tilting toward a steeper slowdown despite insistence from leaders that it isn’t.US Retail Sales grew by 0.4% MoM in September, recovering from August’s 0.1% and beating median market forecasts of a 0.3% print. Retail Sales excluding Automotive spending also thumped forecasts, growing by 0.5% in September compared to the expected 0.1%, and easily vaulting over August’s 0.2% increase.US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 11 also beat market expectations, coming in at 241K for the week. Investors expected the week’s new jobless claimant count to hold steady at the previous week’s revised 260K.
EUR/USD price forecast
EUR/USD has experienced significant bearish pressure, breaking below both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0996 and the 200-day EMA at 1.0904, marking a clear bearish shift in market sentiment. The pair is now trading near 1.0828, testing multi-week lows as the downside momentum intensifies. A sustained break below 1.0800 could lead to further declines, with the next major support area around 1.0750. The sharp decline in recent sessions reflects the growing strength of the bearish trend, with sellers maintaining control as the pair moves away from key moving averages.The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is deeply entrenched in negative territory, with both the MACD and signal lines showing no signs of reversal, suggesting that bearish momentum could continue. The histogram is expanding further into the negative, indicating an acceleration of the downside movement. If the pair fails to hold the 1.0800 support level, we could see additional losses, with 1.0750 and possibly 1.0700 on the horizon. On the flip side, a recovery above 1.0900, where the 200-day EMA lies, is needed to diminish the bearish outlook and bring some relief to the bulls.
EUR/USD daily chart
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