Data from the BLS, chart by MishImports
The price index for U.S. imports decreased 0.4 percent in September, the largest 1-month drop since a 0.7- percent decline in December 2023. The September decrease followed a 0.2-percent decline in August and 0.1-percent advances in July and June. U.S. import prices edged down 0.1 percent over the past year, the first 12-month drop since February 2024.
Fuel Imports: Prices for import fuel fell 7.0 percent in September, after declining 2.9 percent in August. The September decline was the largest monthly decrease since an 8.0-percent drop in December 2023. Lower prices in September for petroleum and natural gas contributed to the overall decrease. Import fuel prices declined 17.3 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month drop since August 2023. Import petroleum prices decreased 7.1 percent in September, the largest 1-month decline since December 2023. The price index for import petroleum fell 16.7 percent for the year ended in September, the largest 12- month drop since July 2023. Prices for import natural gas decreased 14.5 percent in September, the largest monthly decline since a 29.7-percent drop in March 2024. Import natural gas prices fell 57.4 percent over the past 12 months, the largest over-the-year drop since January 2024.
All Imports Excluding Fuel: Nonfuel import prices ticked up 0.1 percent for the third consecutive month in September. Higher prices in September for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials, consumer goods, and automotive vehicles more than offset lower foods, feeds, and beverages prices. Prices for nonfuel imports have not recorded a monthly decline since May 2024. The price index for nonfuel imports rose 1.8 percent over the past 12 months, the largest over-the-year advance since December 2022.
Foods, Feeds, and Beverages: Prices for import foods, feeds, and beverages decreased 1.5 percent in September, the first 1-month decline since May 2024. In September, a 12.2-percent drop in vegetables prices drove the decrease in foods, feeds, and beverages prices.
Nonfuel Industrial Supplies and Materials: The price index for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials rose 1.1 percent in September, the largest monthly advance since a 2.8-percent increase in April 2024. The September rise was led by higher prices for metals and chemicals.
Finished Goods: Prices for the major finished goods import categories were mostly up in September. Consumer goods prices rose 0.2 percent, after edging down 0.1 percent in August and July. Higher prices for coins, gems, jewelry, and collectibles led the September advance. Prices for automotive vehicles increased 0.2 percent for the second consecutive month in September. Higher prices for non-engine parts and accessories in September drove the advance. The price index for capital goods was unchanged in September following a 0.2-percent increase in August.
Exports
Prices for U.S. exports fell 0.7 percent in September following a decline of 0.9 percent the previous month. U.S. export prices decreased 1.1 percent for the third quarter of 2024, the largest 3-month drop since December 2023. Lower prices for nonagricultural exports in September more than offset higher agricultural export prices. The price index for U.S. exports declined 2.1 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month decrease since January 2024.
Agricultural Exports: Agricultural export prices advanced 0.6 percent in September, after declining 2.1 percent in August. Higher prices for nuts, other food preparations, meat, wheat, and corn in September more than offset lower soybeans prices. In spite of the September rise, prices for agricultural exports declined 5.3 percent from September 2023 to September 2024.
All Exports Excluding Agriculture: The price index for nonagricultural exports decreased 0.9 percent in September, the largest monthly drop since the index fell 0.9 percent in October 2023. Lower prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials and automotive vehicles in September more than offset higher prices for capital goods, consumer goods, and nonagricultural foods. Prices for nonagricultural exports declined 1.8 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month decrease since December 2023.
Nonagricultural Industrial Supplies and Materials: Prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials fell 2.4 percent in September, the largest 1-month decline since the index decreased 5.0 percent in May 2023. A 6.7-percent drop in export fuel prices in September led the overall decline in nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials prices.
Finished Goods: Prices for the major finished goods export categories were mixed in September. Capital goods prices rose 0.2 percent following a 0.2-percent decline in August. Higher prices for telecommunications equipment led the increase in September. Consumer goods prices advanced 0.3 percent in September, the largest 1-month increase since March 2024. Higher jewelry prices drove the September rise in consumer goods prices. In contrast, prices for automotive vehicles edged down 0.1 percent, the first 1-month decline since April 2023.
Import and Export Prices Year-Over-Year 
Import and Export Price Indexes 
The above chart shows Covid had a positive impact on import and export prices but much more on exports.The indexes peaked in June of 2022. Since then the export price index is down 11.9 percent and the import price index is down 5.2 percent.In isolation, I believe this will be net negative to GDPNow but this depends more on what the model expects rather than the data itself. This makes it much more of a guess than might seem obvious by looking at the data.More By This Author:What Would Trump’s Mass Deportation of Immigrants Cost?Continued Plus Long-Term Unemployment Claims Suggest Recession Right NowInitial And Continued Unemployment Claims Surge, A Cause For Alarm?
