Image Source: PexelsThe GDPNow nowcast fell 0.6 percentage points to 2.5 percent on weaker than expected economic reports.
GDPNow data from the Atlanta Fed, chart by MishThe Atlanta Fed updated its GDPNow Nowcast on October 1. Here is a recxap.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on October 1, down from 3.1 percent on September 27. After Tuesday’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic growth decreased from 3.3 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and 0.8 percent.
The number to watch is Real Final Sales not the headline number. The difference between GDP and Real Final Sales is inventory adjustment which nets to zero over time.Construction Spending
ISM Manufacturing Contracts 6th Month, 22nd Time in 23 MonthsYesterday, I commented ISM Manufacturing Contracts 6th Month, 22nd Time in 23 MonthsEmployment fell sharply but production contraction slowed. Prices are declining.Compared to the typical quarter, the GDPNow nowcast has been in a relatively tight range for the entire quarter.More By This Author:Job Quits Drop Again, Well Below Pre-Covid LevelsISM Manufacturing Contracts 6th Month, 22nd Time In 23 MonthsHousing Starts Are Tumbling As Completions Soar, It’s Very Recessionary
