WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed lower on Friday in response to the USDA reports, but higher last week as the dry weather outlook continues for Russia and the US. USDA cut yield and production and demand in the reports on Friday and ending stocks were a little lower. At least two Wheat producing regions in Russia have declared a state of emergency for Wheat producers due to a lack of rain and little to no rain has been a problem with Winter Wheat planting in the US. World prices were steady despite weather problems here in the US and around the globe as demand apparently has improved from being less over the last week. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were higher and are now about $230.00/ton as production estimates remain lower and two regions have now declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather. The Russin Ag minister asked farmers to pray for better conditions earlier this week. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 583, 576, and 564 December, with resistance at 617, 658, and 677 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 591, 579, and 571 December, with resistance at 623, 633, and 672 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 632, 624, and 611 December, and resistance is at 655, 693, and 704 December.DepositPhotos
RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower and trends are turning down on the daily charts in response to the USDA reports released on Friday. USDA made no significant changes to the supply side or the demand side of the ledger and so no one was offered a reason to buy. Lower Asian prices are reported after India opened up exports for non Basmati White Rice last week. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down. Support is at 1489, 1479, and 1468 November and resistance is at 1514, 1530, and 1540 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower with active harvest conditions in the Midwest and in response to the USDA reports. USDA increased yields, production, and ending stocks more than expected by the trade. Yield reports have been mixed, with many now complaining about the dry weather hurting yield potential. Corn is often coming to the elevator at levels at 10% to 12% moisture instead of the desired 14% moisture and it has made a difference in yields overall. It remains dry in the Midwest, and there are now forecasts for dry conditions and cooler temperatures in the Midwest for the coming week and beyond. Ideas are that the production data seen last month will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 415, 409, and 401 December, and resistance is at 424, 428, and 434 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 373, 357, and 349 December, and resistance is at 397, 404, and 410 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were a little lower yesterday as Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country and in response to the UDA reports. USDA estimated Soybean yields and production above trade estimates. Traders were also disappointed that China did not announce new economic support measures for its economy last week with the country returning to work. May had expected some important new moves o support the Chinese economy by the government but were disappointed. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Dry weather will last all week and into next week. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Rains should start today and will stick around as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 1002, 996, and 973 November, and resistance is at 1027, 1039, and 1055 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 313.00, 307.00, and 300.00 December, and resistance is at 320.00, 327.00, and 332.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4240, 4190, and 4140 December, with resistance at 4430, 4530, and 4560 December.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week after trading in a wide range on weakness in the outside markets. The production could be reduced by flooding that can keep workers from the fields. Demand has held together despite India increasing import taxes on Palm Oil and China is now back from a holiday week to help demand ideas hold together. Canola was a little lower last week along with weakness in Chicago and Malaysia. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada, and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada, but so far demand has held together well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 606.00, 596.00, and 588.00 November, with resistance at 627.00, 633.00, and 638.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 4040, and 3950 December, with resistance at 4350, 4410, and 4500 December.More By This Author:Softs Report – Thursday, Oct. 10Grains Report – Thursday, Oct. 9Softs Report – Monday, Oct. 7