Image Source: PexelsA couple of days ago, I did The Path to Total Surrender post, which nervously pointed out the price action that would, once and for all, zap any morsels of bearish hope for the foreseeable future. So far, those levels haven’t been breached, and on Tuesday we experienced the biggest drop in Chinese stocks in 16 years. Al the same, the risks are still very present, and none of them have changed their price points.The NASDAQ Composite gap remains unviolated.The NASDAQ 100 gap is likely still intact, although its failure (for bears) is much closer.The S&P 100 is essentially at a lifetime high, but for the past 14 trading days, most old-school indexes have been grinding around in a narrow range, with little in the way of meaningful direction.This “stuck” market is even easier to see with the Dow 30. Even though the index is at nearly 42,000, the entire index has only wiggled up and down about 100 points for three solid weeks.The same can be said of the S&P 500. Perhaps we’ll need to wait for Thursday morning (after the CPI comes out) for a resolution.The biggest existential risk remains the small cap futures, whose base is much more substantial. This needs to bust through its medium-term “higher low” to break the uptrend.Perhaps the most worrisome chart of all is volatility. It could well be the minuscule tidbit of weakness we’ve seen under the surface is all we’re going to get, and the VIX is going to yet again retreat back to 14 or so. Alternatively, if we can cut above the early September peak on the VIX, maybe things are about to get interesting again.Monday and Tuesday were very good trading days for me, only because my all-short portfolio prospered in the face of a very strong market. It would go even better if the market would actually fall for a change. The jury is very much out still, but my sense is that Thursday’s open, we’re going to have better clarity as to whether the bears are totally dead for 2024 or if a new lease on life has been granted.More By This Author:Golden Week Shower
Is PayPal A Long?
Novo