Japanese Yen Lacks Any Firm Intraday Direction; USD/JPY Holds Steady Above Mid-151.00s -

Japanese Yen Lacks Any Firm Intraday Direction; USD/JPY Holds Steady Above Mid-151.00s

Oct 25, 2024Jeremy ParkinsonFinance0

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The Japanese Yen struggles to lure buyers amid mixed Tokyo consumer inflation figures.

Traders remain on the sidelines amid the uncertainty ahead of Japan’s general election.

The USD stalls the overnight slide from a multi-month top and lends support to USD/JPY.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses against its American counterpart through the Asian session on Friday amid mixed fundamental cues. Against the backdrop of the election-related uncertainty in Japan, a fall in Tokyo’s core inflation rate below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target further dampens hopes for further rate hikes in 2024 and weighs on the JPY. Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone is seen as another factor undermining the JPY’s safe-haven demand. That said, the recent verbal intervention by Japanese authorities hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the JPY ahead of the general election in Japan on Sunday. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) stalls the previous day’s retracement slide from a three-month high amid bets for smaller rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, assists the USD/JPY pair to hold its neck above the mid-151.00s as traders look to the US macro data to grab short-term opportunities.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen bulls remain on the sidelines amid BoJ rate-hike uncertainty

The Statistics Bureau of Japan reported this Friday that the headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by the 1.8% YoY rate in October as compared to 2.2% in the previous month.

Further details revealed that Core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, grew 1.8% in October, down from 2% in the prior month but slightly above market expectations of 1.7%.

A core reading that excludes both fresh food and energy prices, rose from 1.6% in September to 1.8% during the reported month, still below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.

This follows a private-sector survey on Thursday, which showed that business activity in Japan’s manufacturing and services sectors contracted in October, and points to weak economic conditions.

This adds to the election-related uncertainty in Japan and raises doubts over the BoJ’s ability to hike interest rates further this year, and is seen weighing on the Japanese Yen on Friday.

Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and that a weak yen has various impacts on the economy.

The US Dollar stalls the previous day’s pullback from a three-month high amid bets for a less aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve and offers support to the USD/JPY pair.

Friday’s US macro data – Durable Goods Orders and the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – might provide some impetus as investors await Japan’s election on Sunday.

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY dips towards the 151.00 mark might still be seen as a buying opportunity
From a technical perspective, weakness below the 151.60-151.55 area could drag the USD/JPY pair to the 151.00 mark. Any further decline is likely to find decent support around the 150.65 confluence resistance breakpoint, comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-September downfall. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively will suggest that the recent rally since the beginning of this month has run out of steam and shift the bias in favor of bearish traders. On the flip side, momentum beyond the 152.00 mark could extend further towards the 152.60-152.65 region. Some follow-through buying should allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 153.00 round figure. The latter is closely followed by the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the 153.20 area, which if cleared should pave the way for additional gains towards the 154.00 mark and the 154.30 supply zone.More By This Author:GBP/CAD Price Forecast: Possibly Extending Higher In Rising Wedge Pattern USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bulls Have The Upper Hand Despite Corrective Slide, 1.3800 Holds The Key USD/CAD Moves Away From Post-BoC Swing High, Slides To 1.3825 On Softer USD