Natural Gas on the Nymex had a volatile week before closing 1.7% lower than the previous one at $2.85. EIA reported on Thursday a build of 55 Bcf in working underground stocks for the week ended September 27. Total inventory is currently at 3,547 bcf, 3.7% higher y/y, 5.7% above the 5-year average. Both percentages are now looking normal compared to the beginning of the refill season.We took another healthy 20% in the last few weeks in directional trading on the continuation of this seasonal uptrend. Back in June we first talked about a potential $4.00 level for the coming winter contracts that had to give us the upcoming direction of this market. We reassesed in July for a $3.50 price that looked attainable before January 2025, and we now need to be more precise in identifying the next seasonal ceiling. We believe that there is a lot of resistance that will come from this $3.50 level from now on so we do not want to become too greedy about this trading idea. The smart move here will be to trade the brakes of this uptrend and the near-term of the range bound that will follow and be ready to sell any rally on exhaustion in the next couple of months when the seasonal downtrend will begin.Europe shows a willingness to continue to look for other sources of natural gas, from different regions of the world and not only from the US. This is something I first touched on, in Spring 2022, talking about only 10% of total American consumption that could cross the Atlantic in the next ten years. Europe in the last 30 years has lost 3/4 of its natural gas production. A strategic mistake, but one that is no longer sure to pay so dearly, as other forms of energy are now available at very competitive prices. I mentioned months ago that the US economy, for different reasons, will persist in high interest rates. This will put further pressure on the price of natural gas and other commodities. Allow me a quick comment on those headlines about the oil price. Is it 2022 all over again? Is the Iranian 2% of the global production enough for the whole industry to be profiteering for the next few months? If so we will have to sell this spike aggressively once again. U.S. macro data and the Dollar Index must be routinely monitored. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI are pointing to entry areas. 
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