COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday as export demand remains weak and the US Dollar was strong. Trends are mixed in this market. China moved to lower interest rates again and there are hopes this move will help restart the economic engine there. Real estate has been the big problem there. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up. Support is at 69.90, 69.30, and 68.30 December, with resistance of 71.90, 72.70 and 73.50 December.
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed mixed yesterday and the spot November contract was higher again as the market remains short of juice. Trends are turning up again in this market. USDA cut Florida oranges production to 15 million boxes, from 18 million in its previous report and 20 million last year. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now. Rain is expected this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up. Support is at 509.00, 500.00, and 480.00 November, with resistance at a 536.00, 542.00, and 548.00 November
COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday on reports of higher Vietnamese prices in response to a storm threat in the next few days. The chart trends are mixed in both markets as the harvest in Vietnam is more active. The demand for Vietnamese Coffee is reported to be less right now and this has been a big problem for bullish traders. Rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas but as crop losses are still a good possibility in Brazil and Vietnam. There are now reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 247.51 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 242.00, 236.00, and 228.00 December, and resistance is at 256.00, 265.00 and 2w68.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4320, 4160, and 4060 November, with resistance at 4550, 4650, and 4800 November.
SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling related to chart patterns. Trends are sideways to down in New York but are sideways in London. Harvest progress is active in Brazil and growing conditions are much improved in India and Thailand. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial, and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. It is also wet in Brazil and this has affected harvest progress. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 2100, 2020, and 1980 March and resistance is at 2260, 2290, and 2340 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 555.00, 552.00, and 541.00 December, with resistance at 577.00, 586.00, and 590.00 December.
COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed higher yesterday on ideas that commercials are a little under bought for the time of year. Despite this, reports of better harvest conditions in West Africa have helped push differentials lower. An Ivory Coast government official said that the country could produce 10% more Cocoa this year although he noted that it has been very wet recently and yields could be affected. It has been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bringing concerns that pod disease could develop. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on the overall improved weather in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 6600, 6350, and 6000 December, with resistance at 6970, 7440, and 7510 December. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4930, 4860, and 4470 December, with resistance at 5520, 5620, and 5730 December.More By This Author:Grains Report – Monday, Oct. 28
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