China’s Property Market Concerns: The ongoing weakness in China’s property sector continues to be a significant drag on steel rebar demand. The steep 5.7% decline in housing prices, the largest in nearly a decade, underscores the challenges facing the sector. While the Chinese government has introduced measures such as increasing loan quotas for property developers, the lack of substantial fiscal or monetary intervention from the Ministry of Finance (MoF) or the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has left markets uncertain about the extent of recovery in property demand. Distressed developers are likely to remain a major source of concern, as their inability to ramp up construction activity and avoid liquidation directly impacts steel consumption.

Impact on Steel Rebar Demand: The construction sector, a key consumer of steel rebar, remains under pressure as property developers face financial distress and weak demand for new homes. The limited effectiveness of current policy measures suggests that any recovery in steel rebar demand from this sector could be slow and uneven. Without a strong rebound in construction activity, large consumers of steel rebar are unlikely to re-enter the market in force, further weighing on prices.

Iron Ore and Ferrous Metals Outlook: Despite the weaker outlook for steel rebar, iron ore prices have stabilized above $105 per tonne following China’s rate cuts. The PBoC’s decision to lower the one- and five-year loan prime rates is a positive signal for steel demand, as it could reduce pressure on household mortgages and potentially stimulate home buying. This, in turn, could support a gradual recovery in steel demand, but the impact may take time to materialize, given the depth of challenges in the property market.

Broader Economic Indicators: Recent macroeconomic data from China, including better-than-expected GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment figures, suggests that the economy is showing some resilience. However, growth remains slow, particularly when compared to earlier in the year. The possibility of further stimulus, including another cut to banks’ reserve requirements, is a positive development but may not be enough to fully offset the structural issues in the property sector that weigh on steel demand.

Policy Response and Market Skepticism: While Beijing has implemented several measures aimed at supporting the economy, market participants remain skeptical about their effectiveness, particularly in addressing the deep-seated issues in the property market. The lack of clear and decisive fiscal policy or a well-defined cash injection via special bonds has left investors concerned that the stimulus measures may fall short in driving a meaningful recovery in steel consumption.

Steel Rebar Positioning: Given the weak demand outlook from the property sector, we recommend a cautious stance on steel rebar. Prices may remain under pressure as the construction sector struggles to recover, and distressed property developers are unlikely to provide a significant boost to demand. Until there are more concrete signs of stabilization in the property market, we suggest a limited exposure to steel rebar and related assets.

Iron Ore and Ferrous Metals: While the stabilization of iron ore prices above $105 is encouraging, the market remains vulnerable to downside risks if China’s property market does not recover meaningfully. We recommend selectively increasing exposure to iron ore, but with a strong focus on risk management. Long-term demand drivers, such as infrastructure projects or other stimulus measures, should be monitored closely for additional opportunities.

China’s Economic Outlook: The potential for further policy easing from the PBoC, including a possible reduction in reserve requirements, could provide upside for the broader economy. Investors should remain vigilant for additional stimulus measures or signals of increased fiscal support, as these could lead to a more sustained recovery in demand across sectors, including steel.