TLT: Bonds Selling Off For These Reasons. So, What Does It Mean For Stocks?


Image Source: PixabayI recently joined the great Stuart Varney on Fox Business to discuss bond yields, the election, the Fed, the market outlook, misconceptions about the “Trump Trade,” and a lot more. Here are a few things to keep in mind about the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and stocks.Money is moving out of bonds. The last time we saw this abrupt of a move (two standard deviations) out of bonds in one month was 2001-2003. That preceded some of the biggest moves in history for US small caps and emerging markets equities.Meanwhile, I told Stuart we have a tale of two cities in markets. Indices look a bit stretched in the short term, but many individual companies look like bargains. Markets SEEM to be pricing in “pro-business” policies coming to the White House (i.e. a Trump win). And if so, these newer themes will persist:

  • Un-Magnificent 493 will outperform Magnificent 7 (earnings growth accelerating for 493, decelerating for 7).
  • Small caps will outperform large caps by 11% in the first 12 months following the first rate cut.
  • Value will outperform growth in the first six months following the first cut.
  • Emerging markets will outperform developed markets as the US dollar continues to weaken.
  • More By This Author:XMMO: A Momentum ETF To Buy On The Market’s Rate-Related PullbackAlamos Gold: A Mining Stock To Target As Central Banks Pile Into GoldEnerflex: An International Energy Infrastructure Play That’s On The Right Track

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