Image Source: UnsplashPlaybook for the Biotech Bull Run

Pick a basket of Large Cap biopharma stocks: ABBV, LLY, MRK, PFE, VRTX. (see updates on ABBV and BMY).

Buy a biotech fund (FBIOX) and the XBI.

Trade SMID biotech stocks with the XBI. More difficult and with increasing volatility.

If you have been reading our posts you know that some of the big biotech winners have taken a hit after earnings : LLY, MRK and REGN. But ABBV, GILD, LLY, and VRTX remain among the top performers. Three of our top picks have sold off but are in a value buying range: LLY, MRK, PFE. We are still looking for PFE get some good news and trade above $30 with a dividend above 6%.What is surprising over the past quarter is the volatility among the large caps ABBV gapped up and AZN gapped down on pivotal trading days over the past  month. BIIB and GSK continued a downward trend for many months. And Regeneron a top pick for many years took a big revenue and earnings hit from Eylea competition. JNJ remains stagnant as it restructures into a MEDTech and BIOpharma powerhouse while it extricates itself from its endless talc litigation. What we also need to factor in at some time is the TRUMP administration healthcare polices.**BUT today to show the volatility of this once staid group ABBV was down 12.57% to the $174 level on Phase 2 results for its schizophrenia drug recently acquired in the $8.7B Cerevel deal. BMY gained 10.49% on their schizophrenia drug the recently received FDA approval.Another option is to buy a biotech fund like Fidelity Select Biotech Portfolio (FBIOX) that is weighted toward large caps: ABBV, GILD, LLY and is up 26% YTD.SMID CAPs- Life in the Fast Lane with Momentum StocksOur SMID cap trading list was developed early in 2024 and rests have been outstanding. Some of the recent performance was outlined in posts we did over the last two weeks. Today there were several big winners: ADPT, CRBU, CRSP, PACB, RZLT, TEM, VCYT etc.  But in light of recent big moves and volatility we would suggest a more measured approach to trading these SMID caps.LARGE CAP BIOPHARMAs MetricsData as of FRIDAY NOV 10, 2024.

    1/15/18 3/31/23 11/1/19 10/8/2023 2024 YTD   FWD Analyst % 1 yr % %   Company Ticker Price Price Price Price PRICE             1 mo.               11/10/24 % Perf P/S PE Recom Div                                     Abbvie** ABBV 100.000 159.37 81.75 148.23 199.5 28.73 6.32 16.46 1.78 3.09 40.46 3.36 gap u Alexion(ALXN) ALXN 123.000 182.5 109.38 – 40.33 n/a 4.56 9.38 n/a   AZN     Amgen AMGN 185.000 241.75 221 263 325.28 12.94 5.47 15.68 2.2 2.8 19.04 2.39   AstraZeneca* AZN 35.000 69.41 40.34 67.42 64.5 -4.25 4.07 13.76 1.93 2.41 1.51 -16.11 gap d Biogen BIIB 336.000 278.31 299.2 263.25 173.04 -33.13 2.72 10.22 1.75 – 25.32) -5 low Bristol Myers* BMY 63.000 69.31 57.16 56.66 54.14 5.52 2.29 7.68 2.85 4.42 3.28 3.16   Celgene* (BMY) CELG 106.000 n/a 108.53 – 77 n/a 4.69 8.7 n/a                                       Gilead Sci GILD 79.000 82.97 61.69 74.74 96.57 19.2 4.19 12.96 2.09 3.18 23.96 13.33 high GlaxoSmithK* GSK 38.000 35.58 45 36.65 36.29 -2.08 1.86 8.28 2.5 4.3 3.51 -4.55 low Johnson&J* JNJ new       155.47 -0.81 4.23 14.69 2.18 3.01 3.41 -2.64   Eli Lilly LLY 85.000 343.42 113 565.22 831.54 42.65 20.14 36.76 1.62 0.66 34.31 -8.99 rsi low Merck MRK 59.000 106.39 78 103.88 102.92 -5.6 4.21 10.94 1.58 3.05 -1.42 -5.16 low Pfizer PFE   40.8   33.13 26.72 -7.19 2.45 9.21 2.23 6.31 -13.3 -8.43 rsi low Regeneron REGN 367.000 821.67 310.48 836.57 828.42 -5.68 6.61 18.32 1.82 – -0.68 6.13 low Vertex VRTX 158.000 315.07 196 360.62 516.74 27 12.89 27.46 1.97 – 37 12.59 high                                     3/31 11/19 10/7/23 11/10/24  

%YTD

      1 yr 1 mo. Trend XBI     76.21 93 72.23 104.18   16.68       50 7.29 u IBB     129.16 119.65 122.48 148.85   9.57       25.63 4.09 u FBIOX     15.63 20.26 15.47 22.47   26       50.2 6.59 u PRHSX     87.75 79 86.37 99.55   13.25       17.26 0.83 u XLV     129.46 121.11 128 150.18   10.12       17.1 -1.06 – XPH     41.01 39.47 39.05 48.05   15.45       31.14 9.35 u UNH     472.59 252 524.81 615.81   16.97       14.73 5.89 u QQQ     320.93 201.23 364.7 514.14   25.55       37.86 5.08 u

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