We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 20-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Dairy Products Sales and Milk Production at 2:00 P.M. The Census Bureau reported that housing starts in October fell 3% from a downwardly revised September figure and were down 4% from a year ag, at a 3-month low of 1.262 Mil homes. This was the 3rd lowest monthly figure of the year and smallest for October since 2028. Housing starts continue to struggle from building inventories of new homes and mortgage rates that remain near 7%. Single-family home starts fell 7%, while starts for houses with 5 units or more jumped nearly 10%. Building permits in October were down just 1% from an upward-revised September figure but were 5% less than a year ago, merking the largest year-over-year decline in 13 months. Interest rates need to decline, and real wages need to begin rising before the real estate market sees any improvement. Weather Threats Still Absent From South America; Net Soil Boost in Argentina; Wetter Pattern Forecast in Southern Brazil in 6-15 Day Period: The South American pattern into the opening days of December is rather routine in nature. Monsoonal rain continues to perform normally across tropical latitudes in Brazil. Importantly an expansion in South American rainfall occurs after November 23rd, and given the consistency of this pattern change confidence is high in its arrival. The GFS 8-day in soil moisture change shows increased soil moisture in major crop areas. There’s more work to be done with respect to building subsoil moisture reserves in Mato Grosso do Sul & Parana in south-central Brazil, but rainfall of 2-4” is forecast there over the next 10 days. Assuming the best-performing EU ensemble model verifies, all of South America will benefit from rainfall of 1.5-4.00” between now and December 4th . Central US Weather Discussion Rain Soaks Southern Plains, Far Western Corn Belt; Precipitation Favors E Midwest/Southeast Next 10 Days: An easing of widespread Central US drought continues. A 24-hour guage ending yesterday morning, and accumulation of .80-1.75” was recorded in key areas of the TX/OK panhandles, KS, and E NE. Nov 1-18 rainfall in southern and central Plains has totaled 5-8”, vs. average rainfall there in November of 1-2”. A drier pattern develops across Western US moving forward, but net soil moisture boosts move eastward in late Nov/early Dec. Two systems of note travel across the E Midwest, Delta, and mid-South into Nov 29. Precipitation (mostly rain) of 1-3” is projected east of the Mississippi River, with heaviest amounts for KY, TN, IN, and OH. The central US has been outright wet over the last 2 weeks. Corn Ends Weak as Rally in Wheat Stalls; Southern Brazil Receive Needed Rainfall: World corn markets ended slightly weaker amid pronounced selling in the soy complex and as radar maps show needed organized rain working across the far Southern part of Brazil Ag Resources (ARC) detailed that in South American Weather data. Weather in Argentina and RGDS in S Brazil becomes crop critical beginning in December. Major issues are likely to be avoided amid warming equatorial Pacific Ocean temps. It’s future competition for world trade that will weigh on rallies. March CBOT corn will struggle over $4.50. Yet the push and pull of the marketplace will persist through winter. Favorable South American weather caps rallies. The need to adequately supply the US cash pipeline ahead of massive export loading program ahead of a massive export loading program and amid decent ethanol production margins lends support. Note interior basis at major US market has scored newer seasonal highs this week. Target $4.50+, March & Dec to move along both old and new crop hedges. Analysts fear Chinese imports stay minimal indefinitely, which on the margin makes total world trade to contract further.More By This Author:South American Weather Remains A Gamechanger. The Corn & Ethanol Report Potential Tariff Fears- Keep Exports Rolling. The Corn & Ethanol ReportUkraine Gaining On US Export Competitiveness. The Corn & Ethanol Report
