T minus 4 days until the election. I hope to send out emails and/or videos over the weekend and then most days next week.After my last email about our election model I was amazed that people completely ignored my comments and sent me chirping, nasty emails. The model is 100% unemotional. It doesn’t care about policy, opinions, polls nor feelings. It certainly doesn’t care who I am voting for. It simply scores recent economic data along with three time series of stock market performance. Yet, some felt the need to attack me. I did laugh when I read that I was a “closet Trumper” from one person and then a “Harris lover” from another.Our election model just tightened up with the weaker than expected employment report this morning and stock market selloff on Thursday. VP Harris’ position in the model has weakened, but is not weak. One thing that concerns me is that early voting may impact the model to a degree I cannot quantify. I am scheduled to join FOX61 on Monday at 10:15am to discuss this further along with the asset classes and sectors that should outperform under each candidate.It’s so interesting that the major stations are not interested this cycle, even after I predicted the winner on air in real time. I think most are worried that I will forecast the candidate that is against their narrative.A few comments about the weaker employment report. First, I thought the 250,000 new jobs added in September was an anomaly. That was proven to be correct. I think the latest report showing only 12,000 new jobs is also an anomaly. It was a noisy report with the Boeing strike and hurricanes. I am guessing that the number is really above 100,000.Thursday’s selloff was deep and harmful. If it was just a fake out then Friday should see immediate and continued strength. For a market so close to new highs I am surprised at how few sectors look good to buy.
All year investors have avoided or reduced risk because of the election. I continue to believe that is horrible behavior. Markets hate uncertainty. We do know for certain that one of two people willbecome the next president. When we will know the outcome is the only uncertainty. Markets have had weeks and months to adapt, adjust and price in victories. I see incredible amounts of hedging ahead of Tuesday. That leads me to conclude that weakness should be bought and a strong Q4 rally is coming into January.On Wednesday we bought TSM, AIOT, RSPN, MQQQ, QQQW and more IJS, TQQQ and RYAVX. We sold IBB, some TFLO, RYFIX and RYBHX. On Thursday we bought more QQQW and SPYB. We sold TLT, PCY and EMB.More By This Author:Markets Firm As Election Draws Closer – Some Model InputsWanna Know Who Will Win The Election?Volatility Stubbornly High – Proven Wrong Quickly