The S&P Case-Shiller national home price index came in slightly below expectations, with a 0.1% decrease for the month of September.
The index has gained +3.9% over the last 12 months, down from +4.3% last month. The gains were broad based nationwide.“Home price growth stalled in the third quarter, after a steady start to 2024,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “The slight downtick could be attributed to technical factors as the seasonally adjusted figures boasted a 16th consecutive all-time high.“We continue to see above-trend price growth in the Northeast and Midwest, growing 5.7% and 5.4%, respectively, led by New York, Cleveland, and Chicago,” Luke continued. “The Big Apple has taken the top spot for five consecutive months, pushing the region ahead of all others since August 2023. The South region reported its slowest growth in over a year, rising 2.8%, barely above current inflation levels.”
New home sales came in at an annualized rate of 610K units sold for the month of October. Well below street expectations of 725K, a 17.3% decline for the month (the worst one month decline since July 2013). And down 41% from the October 2020 peak of 1,031K.
New home sales are down -9.4% over the last 12 months ending in October, a reversal from the +6.3% gain at the end of September.
The median sales price for new homes sold increased to $437,300, which is an increase of +2.5% for the month. Median prices are still down about 5% from their October 2020 highs.
Prices for new homes are up +4.7% over the last 12 months, an acceleration for the +0.2% annualized increase ending in the month of September.Sales down, but prices are up? It’s a complicated dynamic between higher interest rates, supply & demand, and the types of new homes being built. New home sales used to be a pretty reliable leading indicator, but has since decoupled from the economy a bit since the great reset in interest rates and COIVD stimulus. It’s still important and worth following.More By This Author:S&P 500 Earnings Breakdown Sentiment Indicators Nvidia Earnings Breakdown