Initial claims have now completely reverted to trend after their recent hurricane-induced blip.Initial claims rose 3,000 for the week to 217,000, while the four week moving average decreased -5,750 to 221,000. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims declined -11,000 to 1.873 million:
On the more important YoY basis, initial claims were down -4.8% YoY, while the four week average was up +1.3%. Continuing claims were up 3.7%:
As indicated in the first sentence above, this is a complete return to the YoY positive to neutral trend before Hurricanes Helene and Milton hit. With the first two weeks of November in, let’s take a look at what this has to say about the near future trend for the monthly unemployment rate. Note this week I am presenting the YoY% changes in all three:
Since the unemployment rate was 3.8% one year ago, initial and continuing claims are forecasting roughly a 5% increase in the unemployment rate; i.e., 3.8% * 1.005 = roughly 4.0%. Anything significantly above that is likely due to the continued effects of the relative ability of new immigrants entering the job market to find their first employment.More By This Author:October Consumer Inflation Firms, Driven – As Usual – By Shelter
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