US equity markets are up big today after President Trump’s victory in last night’s election.The average stock in the Russell 1,000 is currently up 2.17%, while the Financials sector ETF (XLF) is up more than 5% on the day.
While many market prognosticators went into the 2016 election saying that a Trump victory would be terrible for the stock market, the same upside reaction that we’re seeing today occurred on the day after Trump’s victory in 2016.(And as a reminder, Dow futures fell 1,000+ points immediately following Trump’s victory back in 2016 before eventually flipping sharply higher.)
The underlying action in the stock market today looks remarkably similar to the action we saw on this same day in 2016.
Below is a look at the average performance of stocks in the Russell 1,000 today broken out by sector versus how they performed on the day after the 2016 election.
The three sectors that are selling off today are the same three that sold off following Trump’s win in 2016: Real Estate, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.
On the flip side, the three sectors performing the best today are the same three that performed the best in 2016: Industrials, Energy, and Financials.
Notably, the three best and worst performing sectors today were also the three best and worst performing sectors on the day after Trump won in 2016.
In the middle of the pack, we’re seeing Technology and Communication Services outperform their 2016 action today, although Communication Services didn’t have some of the big social media companies in it eight years ago.And Health Care and Materials — while still up — aren’t performing as well today as they did back in 2016.
While it may be tempting to pile into the three sectors performing the best today because of Trump’s victory, the three sectors that performed the best on the day after Election Day 2016 ended up being some of the worst-performing sectors during Trump’s first four-year stint in office.
As mentioned above Financials, Energy, and Industrials were the three best-performing sectors on the day after the election in 2016, and they’re also the three best-performing sectors today.As shown below, though, Energy (XLE) would go on to fall 49% from the day after the 2016 election through the day before the 2020 election, while Financials (XLF) was the second worst sector ETF during that time frame and Industrials (XLI) was on the lower end of the performance pack.On the flip side, it ended up being Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) that performed the best between the 2016 and 2020 elections even though they weren’t big standouts on the day after the 2016 election.
As far as the action goes today, Financials are soaring.Below is a look at the 20 best-performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 so far today.14 of the 20 are from the Financials sector, and all of them are up more than 12%.Outside of the Financials, Tesla (TSLA) is also on the list with a gain of more than 13%.Given Elon Musk’s very vocal support of President Trump this election cycle, the action in TSLA should come as no surprise.
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