DEC CORN
In a holiday-shortened week, the dominant news was Trumps proclamation of 25% tariffs on Mexico & Canada and 10% on China – to combat the heavy flow of drugs & immigrants across our Southern & Northern borders! The initial knee-jerk reaction was of course sharply lower but the mkt reconsidered later in the week – with Dec Corn closing almost unchanged from last Friday! Mitigating the news were several factors – #1 – this isn’t exactly “new news” as Trump hasbandied this issue about for several months & #2 some feel he is employing a “bargaining chip” to force our trading partners to tighten up their immigration policies! Indeed, since his announcement, he has had a phone conference with Mexico & dinner with Canada’s leader – which may change his tariff policies! Many economists feel tariffs would raise prices – just the opposite of what DT promised voters!
JAN BEANS
Amidst a lot of negative news this week, Jan Beans managed to close higher for the week – an impressive show of bullish divergence! First was the 800 pound gorilla in the room the looming record South America Crop – which appears to be getting dialed in! And second were DT’s tariff projections – which seemed to be offset by sterling exports sales Friday morning – a veritable trifecta of solid export #’s – beans 2.49mmt (1.5-2.4), bean oil 124,000 (25-50,000)mt & bean meal 487,000 (160-550,000)mt! As well, 961,000mt 0f beans were reported sold to unknown in a flash sale!
DEC WHT
Dec Wht seemed to show good support just off the 521 contract low – set in late August! Russia’s export pressure has kept prices “under wraps” but strong Dec up-seasonals, post-harvest rallies in Corn & Beans & improved exports portend a late Dec-early Jan rally! The mkt has been buffeted about by geopolitical issues as first the Israel-Gaza war escalated & then a truce was announced last week! Hopefully, it will last!
FEB CAT
Feb Cat’s remarkable upside run since Labor Day has defied seasonal tendencies that normally point south after the outdoor grilling season ends! But picking up the slack of lost demand were the Fed’s IR cuts which re-energized the US economy & meat demand! As well, just after cattle corrected its $15 upside surge in early Nov, Trump got elected which spawned a 3000 point rally in the DJI – as a better economy implied improved meat demand – reigniting cattle’s rally! Finally, the screwworm issue occurred at the Mexican border – temporarily suspending beef imports – further supporting the mkt!
FEB HOGS
Feb Hogs have had an even more remarkable upside since late Summer – running up $21 (68-89) – benefitting from many of the same positives that catapulted cattle higher – including the Feds IR lowering & Trumps election! As well, recent USDA Reports have leaned very friendly to the Pork Complex – including the recent Cold Storage Report! And hogs always have the built-in cost advantage in the supermarket for consumers looking for the best deals amidst our inflation challenges!More By This Author:AgMaster Report – Tuesday, Nov. 19AgMaster Report – Wednesday, Nov. 6AgMaster Report – Wednesday, Oct. 30