Fed Uncertainty, Inflation Back In Focus, Government Shutdown?


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 Following yesterday’s dramatic post-Fed policy meeting sell-off that pushed the S&P 500 even deeper into short-term oversold territory, futures point to a comparatively modest rebound when equity markets open later this morning. That late-day sell-off came even though the Fed delivered on market expectations for a 25-basis point rate cut and updated economic projections that included a more vibrant GPD forecast, a slower pace of progress on inflation, and two 25-basis point rate cuts next year, down from in the September projections.What weighed on the market and sent the Volatility Index (VIX) soaring more than 70% higher was the perceived ambiguity over when the Fed may deliver 2025 rate cuts. Fueling that timing uncertainty, Fed Chair Powell reiterated his recent message the Fed will be more cautious about further rate cuts. So while the market got what it wanted, it also received a fresh bout of uncertainty, something it is no fan of.While this could be setting up a similar market situation we saw in early August and early September, it also means we and other market watchers will continue to focus on incoming data, especially for inflation. During his afternoon press conference, Powell clearly stated the central bank really wants to see more progress on inflation, especially with year-over-year figures, before delivering additional rate cuts.The next set of inflation data comes later today, but that will be the third and final look at PCE Price Index data for Q3 2024. The next batch of fresh inflation data will be released on Friday when the November PCE Price Index data is published. Market expectations see the headline PCE Price Index rising to 2.5% from 2.3% in October and the core figure for November is expected to tick higher to 2.9% from 2.8% the month before.Because we are fresh from the Fed meeting, higher-than-expected figures will lead to more speculation of rate cuts coming later in 2025. However, should we see a meaningful surprise lower with the November figures that could be enough to bring the market out of this current funk. Friday is also one of the four “Quadruple Witching” days in the market, which means we will see the simultaneous expiration of stock index futures contracts, single-stock options, options on stock-index options, and stock index options. These days tend to have greater than usual volatility and volume as traders close out or extend their positions.Adding another layer of pressure to the Tech sector this morning, guidance from memory company Micron (MU) came up woefully short, laying the blame on PC and smartphone markets even as its customers are working down excess inventory levels. Micron’s data center revenue grew 400% year over year in its November quarter, and orders for those products remained strong. By spring 2025, Micron anticipates a rebound in demand outside its data center market and forecasts the PC market to rise 5% in 2025.To the mix, we can also add uncertainty as to whether a government shutdown will be averted later this week. If measures to keep the government open fail, a partial shutdown could begin as early as Saturday. But if the legislation passes, it will kick the next funding fight until mid-March. Complicating matters, President Trump and team are pushing for a streamlined spending bill but increase the debt ceiling.More By This Author:Multiple Data Points To Go Before A Santa Claus Rally Ahead Of November CPI, TSM’s Revenue And Oracle’s AI SurgePowell Sees A “More Cautious Fed” Ahead Of The November Employment Report

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