The good news is:

 The NegativesThe first chart covers the last 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green.  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1^st trading day of each month.  NY NH declined as the index was rising to new highs.The next chart is similar to the 1^st one except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NH in green has been calculated with NASDAQ data.  OTC NH failed to confirm the new index high.The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new lows (OTC NL) in brown.  OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).  OTC NL upward move was arrested as the index hit its new high.The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY NL, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.NY NL also turned downward as the index closed at a new high. The PositivesThe next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red.  Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).OTC HL Ratio fell a little bit, but finished the week at a comfortable 71%.The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.NY HL ratio declined while the index was heading for an all time high.

Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 2^nd Friday of December during the 4^th year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period. OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2023 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2023.  There are summaries for both the 4^th year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.  Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.Average returns for the coming week have been modestly positive by all measures.  Report for the week before the 2nd Friday of December.The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.Daily returns from Monday to 2nd Friday. OTC Presidential Year 4 (PY4) Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals 1964-4   0.09%  -0.23%  -0.23%  -0.34%   0.16%  -0.55% 1968-4  -0.24%   0.11%   0.00%  -0.04%  -0.13%  -0.30% 1972-4   0.15%   0.10%   0.30%   0.28%   0.07%   0.90% 1976-4   0.35%   0.41%   0.39%   0.78%   0.55%   2.48% 1980-4  -3.52%  -0.41%  -0.76%  -2.50%   1.31%  -5.88%  Avg     -0.64%   0.00%  -0.08%  -0.36%   0.39%  -0.67%  1984-4  -0.18%   0.12%  -0.05%  -0.25%   0.40%   0.04% 1988-4   0.40%   0.42%  -0.17%  -0.30%  -0.01%   0.35% 1992-4   0.75%   0.09%  -0.48%  -0.75%  -0.48%  -0.87% 1996-4   2.22%  -0.28%  -0.27%  -0.82%  -1.03%  -0.18% 2000-4  -1.12%  10.47%  -3.23%  -1.57%   5.98%  10.55%  Avg      0.41%   2.17%  -0.84%  -0.74%   0.97%   1.98%  2004-4   0.15%  -1.70%   0.54%   0.14%  -0.04%  -0.91% 2008-4   4.14%  -1.55%   1.17%  -3.68%   2.18%   2.25% 2012-4   0.30%   1.18%  -0.28%  -0.72%  -0.70%  -0.21% 2016-4   1.01%   0.45%   1.14%   0.44%   0.50%   3.54% 2020-4   0.45%   0.50%  -1.94%   0.54%  -0.23%  -0.67%  Avg      1.21%  -0.22%   0.13%  -0.66%   0.34%   0.80% OTC summary for PY4 1964 – 2020  Avg      0.33%   0.65%  -0.28%  -0.59%   0.57%   0.70% Win%       73%     67%     36%     33%     53%     47% OTC summary for all years 1963 – 2023 Avg      0.09%   0.08%  -0.06%  -0.26%   0.14%   0.00% Win%       59%     51%     52%     51%     56%     49%
 SPX PY4 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals 1956-4  -0.51%  -0.68%  -0.75%   0.80%   0.09%  -1.06% 1960-4  -0.14%   0.29%   0.99%   0.23%   0.89%   2.26%  1964-4  -0.02%  -0.39%  -0.64%  -0.01%   0.25%  -0.82% 1968-4  -0.25%  -0.25%   0.00%  -0.07%   0.24%  -0.32% 1972-4   0.33%  -0.16%   0.37%   0.50%   0.22%   1.26% 1976-4   0.78%  -0.07%   0.57%   0.41%   0.18%   1.88% 1980-4  -2.55%  -0.10%  -1.70%  -0.70%   1.47%  -3.59%  Avg     -0.34%  -0.19%  -0.35%   0.03%   0.47%  -0.32%  1984-4   0.07%   0.42%  -0.27%  -0.50%   0.54%   0.27% 1988-4   1.15%   0.97%   0.19%  -0.56%   0.17%   1.92% 1992-4   0.75%   0.39%  -0.31%  -0.23%  -0.21%   0.39% 1996-4   1.37%  -0.30%  -0.91%  -1.54%  -0.09%  -1.47% 2000-4   0.74%   3.89%  -1.82%  -0.59%   1.96%   4.19%  Avg      0.82%   1.07%  -0.62%  -0.68%   0.47%   1.06%  2004-4  -0.08%  -1.11%   0.49%   0.54%  -0.10%  -0.26% 2008-4   3.84%  -2.31%   1.19%  -2.85%   0.70%   0.57% 2012-4   0.03%   0.65%   0.04%  -0.63%  -0.41%  -0.31% 2016-4   0.58%   0.34%   1.32%   0.22%   0.59%   3.05% 2020-4  -0.19%   0.28%  -0.79%  -0.13%  -0.13%  -0.96%  Avg      0.84%  -0.43%   0.45%  -0.57%   0.13%   0.42% SPX summary for PY4 1956 – 2020  Avg      0.35%   0.11%  -0.13%  -0.30%   0.37%   0.41% Win%       59%     47%     50%     35%     71%     53% SPX summary for all years 1956 – 2023 Avg      0.13%   0.00%   0.00%  -0.23%   0.14%   0.04% Win%       55%     44%     51%     44%     63%     54% ConclusionLast week was a mixed bag.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), bluest of the blue and the small cap Russell 2000 (R2K) were both down while big tech carried the SPX and OTC to new all time highs.Most of the breadth indicators failed to confirm the new all time highs for the SPX and OTC.  Seasonality for the coming week has been positive, but just barely.The strongest sectors last week were Internet and Technology while the weakest were Energy (for the 2^nd week) and Utilities (down from the top last week).I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday December 13 than they were on Friday December 6. Last week the indices were mixed, half up and half down.  So I am calling last weeks positive forecast a tie.More By This Author:Technical Market Report For November 30, 2024 Technical Market Report For November 16, 2024 Technical Market Report For November 9, 2024