AgMaster Report – Wednesday, Jan. 29


MAR CORN
After a stunning 70 cent rally since harvest (420-490), Mar Corn has encountered some headwinds – forcing a mild correction! The culprits were rain in Arg/S Brazil, the Columbian Immigrant Dispute, the Chinese Lunar New Year starting Wed, the reduction of Argentine export taxes & President Trump’s threatened enactment of tariffs on China, Mexico & Canada on 2/1/25! Headline risks have increased dramatically since his inauguration! Plus, the long fund OI is approaching record levels! However, the technicals are strong, the export flow is solid & the tariff threats may be a bargaining chip! We feel the predicted S/A record crop is dialed in & at still historically cheap prices, corns path of least resistance is up!
MAR BEANS
Much like Mar Corn, Mar Beans after an impressive $1.20 rally since harvest, has also corrected about 30 cents due to the aforementioned factors! The biggest negatives in beans are the ongoing record harvest in Brazil, the export tax reduction in Arg & slack demand from China! But still, Monday Bean Inspections are running 20% over last year & the big Brazilian Bean Crop has been well-documented for several months! And Bean prices in the mid-10’s is still far cheaper than a few years ago! Plus, the USDA Jan Crop Report reduced carry-out in a bullish surprise! The mkt’s sharp rally in reaction to the recent dryness in Argentina is a harbinger of what’s to come should either Hemisphere experience weather issues in 2025!
MAR WHT
Mar Wht continues its “weak sister act” – stubbornly staying in a sideways congestion pattern while corn & beans have rallied sharply since harvest! Even a reduced Russian crop, dryness in the S Plains & export inspections running 25% over 2024 – have been enough to allow the mkt to escape its current trading range! Maybe today’s up-day will be the start of a solid rally! Some feel a final “capitulation spike down” is needed to flush out a few more longs before the mkt starts to march higher!
FEB CAT
Feb Cat has continued it remarkable bullish explosion – going nearly vertical the last 6 trading days – gaining $12 in the process! Carving out new contract & record highs! Not that the upside juggernaut needed any help, but a Bullish COF Report last Friday at 2pm along with a very strong cash mkt has helped fuel the fire! The technicals are obviously superlative! Any corrections have been supported by the short fed-cattle supplies thru the 1st Qtr! The mkt will continue up until it reaches a level that discourages demand – a level we certainly have seen yet!
FEB HOGS
Feb hogs may have finally become the very needed beneficiary of the RAGING BULL that is Feb Cat as consumers turn to pork as beef soars!The last 2 days, the mkt has rallied $2.00 to its Jan Highs – leaving an impressive upside gap today on the chart! But the mkt needs some cooperation from President Trump to NOT enforce his long-threatened tariffs on Mexico on 2-1-25!More By This Author:AgMaster Report – Friday, Jan. 24
AgMaster Report – Tuesday, Jan. 14
AgMaster Report – Tuesday, Jan. 7

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