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Pair sees some upside around 0.6235, maintaining a tight range after key US data.
Fed holds rates but adopts a more cautious stance on inflation progress.
US GDP and jobless claims offer mixed signals, pressuring the US Dollar.
RBA is expected to pivot toward policy easing next month as inflation cools.
AUD/USD remains range-bound above 0.6200 on Thursday as markets assess the United States (US) fourth-quarter GDP release, which could shape the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate outlook. Despite holding rates at 4.25%-4.50%, the Fed’s latest statement signaled a more cautious approach toward inflation, fueling doubts over the timeline for rate cuts. On the other hand, markets are confident that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver a rate cut in February.
Daily digest market movers: Aussie mildly soft after US data
US GDP disappointed as the preliminary Q4 GDP figure slowed to 2.3%, missing expectations of 2.6% and sharply below the 3.1% growth seen in Q3.
Inflation signals were mixed: Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) prices surged to 2.3% (from 1.5%), suggesting persistent inflationary pressures, while core PCE rose by 2.5%, matching estimates.
Initial jobless claims fell to 207K, beating the forecasted 220K, while continuing claims eased to 1.858 million (from 1.900 million).
On the Fed’s side, policymakers removed language indicating progress toward the 2% inflation target, signaling a more data-dependent approach. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed this shift, stating it was not meant to indicate a significant policy change.
Market bets on RBA easing rise as Q4 CPI data from Australia supports a rate-cut case, with headline inflation easing to 2.5% y/y (from 2.8%) and the trimmed-mean CPI slipping to a three-year low of 3.2%, below the RBA’s forecast of 3.4%. Traders are now fully pricing in a 25bps cut in February.
AUD/USD technical outlook: Consolidation phase continues
The AUD/USD remains within a narrow 0.6230-0.6300 trading band, reflecting market hesitation ahead of key data releases. The MACD histogram shows green bars, hinting at underlying bullish momentum, while the RSI sits at 45 in negative territory, reflecting mild selling pressure.Despite recent declines, the short-term outlook remains neutral-to-positive, with traders looking for a breakout above 0.6300 to validate further gains or a drop below 0.6200 to confirm renewed bearish sentiment.More By This Author:Gold Price Remains On The Defensive; Downside Seems Limited As Traders Await Fed Decision WTI Trades With Modest Losses Around $73.25 Area, Down Nearly 0.50% For The Day Pound Sterling Price News And Forecast: GBP/USD Fails To Stabilize Above 1.2500
