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“Davidson” submits:This data has come under suspicion recently and it will take some time to reestablish its validity with commentary it has been manipulated to favor the current administration’s Presidential election. Govt employment has continued to rise well above historical trends. Some of the reported details are excerpted. Some investors still expecting an economic correction with rising rates have sold the market lower in response. However, history clearly shows rising rates are associated with rising equities coming out of a period of pessimism as capital shifts from fixed income to equities.This is what we see today. “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December, following a job loss in November.”
Establishment Survey Data“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 256,000 in December. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December, following a job loss in November. Payroll employment rose by 2.2 million in 2024 (an average monthly gain of 186,000), less than the increase of 3.0 million in 2023 (an average monthly gain of 251,000).Health care added 46,000 jobs in December, with gains in home health care services (+15,000), nursing and residential care facilities (+14,000), and hospitals (+12,000). Health care added an average of 57,000 jobs per month in 2024, the same as the average monthly gain in 2023.Retail trade added 43,000 jobs in December, following a loss of 29,000 jobs in November. In December, employment increased in clothing, clothing accessories, shoe, and jewelry retailers (+23,000); general merchandise retailers (+13,000); and health and personal care retailers (+7,000). Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers lost jobs (-11,000).Overall, employment in retail trade changed little in 2024, following an average monthly increase of 10,000 in 2023.Government employment continued to trend up in December (+33,000). Government added an average of 37,000 jobs per month in 2024, below the average monthly gain of 59,000 in 2023. Over themonth, employment continued to trend up in state government (+10,000).Employment in social assistance increased by 23,000 in December, mostly in individual and family services (+17,000). Social assistance added an average of 18,000 jobs per month in 2024, below the average increase of 23,000 per month in 2023.Employment in leisure and hospitality changed little in December (+43,000). Leisure and hospitality added an average of 24,000 jobs per month in 2024, about half the average monthly gain of 47,000 in 2023.Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and business services; and other services.In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $35.69. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9 percent. In December, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees, at $30.62, were little changed (+6 cents).In December, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 34.3 hours for the fifth month in a row. In manufacturing, the average workweek was little changed at 40.0 hours, and overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 2.8 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 33.7 hours.The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised up by 7,000, from +36,000 to +43,000, and the change for November was revised down by 15,000, from +227,000 to +212,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 8,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.”More By This Author:Retail Money Funds: A Top Contrary Indicator
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