No MomentumExisting-home sales fell 0.7% in 2024 from the prior year to 4.06 million, the National Association of Realtors said Friday.In contrast to the perpetual optimism of Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Relators chief economist, John Burns Research & Consulting has a Different Home Sales Outlook as noted by the Wall Street Journal.
High costs related to homeownership sapped sales again. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has hovered between 6% and 8% since late 2022, making it prohibitively expensive for many Americans to buy homes at current prices, which hit record highs last year. Rising home insurance and property tax costs are also adding to homeowners’ expenses.
The housing market’s outlook this year depends again on mortgage rates, said Rick Palacios Jr., director of research at John Burns Research & Consulting.
“The starting point for 2025 is, you’re kind of already starting in a spot with not that much momentum,” he said. “I don’t really see how that thesis reverses and gets more optimistic as long as mortgage rates stay at 7%.”
Existing-Home Sales 
Existing-Home Sales data from the NAR via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish
There does appear to be some momentum heading into January, but not enough to prevent another annual low.Exp Realty offers this thought.
“Inventory is increasing—that brings people into the market,” said Leo Pareja, chief executive of brokerage eXp Realty. “We think that existing-home sales will marginally increase” in 2025, he said.
A quick check on Mortgage News Daily, shows the average 30-year mortgage rate is 7.11 percent.What matters most is economic growth, inflation, and how the Fed responds to inflation.My expectation is a rising deficit with a 90 percent confidence. I fear an international trade war that could lead to instant inflation, instant recession, or both.Related PostsJanuary 22, 2025: Lacy Hunt on the Global Capacity Glut and the “Mish Recession Indicator”
I am very pleased to get a mention in the latest Hoisington Management Quarterly Review by Lacy Hunt.
Trump “Will Demand Interest Rates Drop Immediately”January 23, 2025, Economically Clueless Trump “Will Demand Interest Rates Drop Immediately”Trump may as well command the tides to stop as did King Canute in a story widely misinterpreted.Canute did command the tides to recede, but walking away said “All the inhabitants of the world should know that the power of kings is vain and trivial, and that none is worthy of the name of king but He whose command the heaven, earth and sea obey by eternal laws”.Trump needs that humility, as did Biden. But it’s not to be, as noted in his video address to Davis.Please see above link commanding interest rates to drop.More By This Author:Economically Clueless Trump “Will Demand Interest Rates Drop Immediately”Trump Renews Threat Of 25 Percent Tariffs On Canada And Mexico Trump Demands The US Get Half Of TikTok “Otherwise It’s Worthless”
