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Healthcare Stocks Lag Again as Earnings Come into Focus

Biotech stocks got little help from the JPM Conference despite some recovery to the general market-: IBB was flat,  SPY up 2.9%.

Small Caps are down again 2% YTD but offer some hope going forward with good stock picks and trading. XBI is a good tracking ETF.

MEDTech had a positive trend with the IHI up 3.3% for the week.: ISRG up 13% YTD, JNJ up 3.5%, FSMEX up 5.2% YTD.

We had hoped to provide you with more detailed coverage of last week’s JPMorgan Healthcare Conference but ran into technical problems posting articles; more than likely due to all the traffic from others posting using WordPress software. We will cut back our coverage of healthcare stocks on our blog due to time constraints given that healthcare is underperforming and represents only about 10-12% weighting of the S&P 500. Moreover we need more time for trading and coverage of technology and macro given the volatility and uncertainty expected in 2025. Nonetheless there is plenty of good biotech research from investment banks  and newsletters.If you follow the market you know that over the past year the leading sectors have been technology, communication services, consumer discretionary and financials. You can track sector performance here.Some large caps took a major hit in 2024: ABBV, LLY,  REGN, UNH, and will need more scrutiny after upcoming earnings. Eli  LIIly down 8% WTD and United Health down 2% WTD released last week and helped continue the bearish sentiment. Dividends should hold with BMY at 4%+, PFE at 6%+ and MRK at 3%+.Click on charts for XBI, REGN, and LLY below. “TIME IS THE DEVOURER OF ALL THINGS.”  I don’t know who wrote this many years ago but it seems to be appropriate today more than ever.
Playbook Summary this MonthReview large cap  earnings focused on our largest positions: ABBV, GILD, LLY, PFE, UNH, VRTX.Continue looking for strong holds and trades from our SMID trading list:  some of of our big winners  over the past year are:  ADPT, CPRX, CRMD, GH, SUPN, VCEL, VCYT. Our trading strategy for SMID biotechs is still based on momentum.Focus on MedTech portfolio: ABT, BDX, BSX,  FSMEX, ILMN, ISRG, SYG.

Model                               PORTFOLIO           *                       2020   2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025   5 yr %         Stock/ETF Ticker Price Wgt Price   Price Price Price P                 10/25 % 12/31 % Perf 12/31/21 12/31/22 11/11 1/19 %Perf % % H                     P   YTD   5d 2024     iShares NAZ Bio IBB 136 10 151.5 25.7 152.62 130.55 115.53 132.65 0.33 8.83 – 149.47                                     iShares Russell 2k IWM 163 10 196.4 18.3 222.45 174.36 175 225.46 2.04 33.35 3.98 242.4     Merck* MRK 80 10 81.77 -10 76.64 115 101.39 97.92 -1.57 12.81 -1.34 132.96     United Health UNH 330 15 350.7 27.19 502 530.27 541.21 509.76 0.77 70.79 -2.1 625.25     SPDR S&P Bio XBI 117 10 140.8 48 111.96 83 66.95 87.97 -2.32 -8.62 -1.64 166.78     Healthcare SPDR XLV 108 25 113.4 14.71 140.89 135.88 126.27 140.18 1.9 34.16 0.39 157.24     T.Rowe Price** PRHSX n/a 5 99.65 n/a 104 89 83.41 80.71 1.48 -3.12   102.48     iShares U.S MedT IHI 50 10 54.83   65.85 52.57 45.75 61.84 5.98 35.68 3.32 61.84     MedTech* ABT   5 123.5   127.46 109.83 94 113.48 0.33 27.51 1.04 120.96     Diversfied MED JNJ new             147.03 1.67 -0.48 3.5 167.38                                     Tracking Comp                                                               ARK Genomic ARKG     93.26   61.24 28.23 24.1 24.11 2.4 29 -2.56 32.96     Direx3X Bull LABU           7.66 2.74 82.6 -8.22 -92.99 -5.54 174.12                                                                     FIDO Biotech FBIOX **   25.18   19.35 16.04 14.39 18.37 -2.8 -18.17   22.47     FiDO MEDtech FSMEX     76.15   83.18 60.04 51.64 65.43 5.21 5.72   69.41     JanusHendLifeSc JNGLX               67.87 – 9.36   82.6                                     DOW DIA     310   363.32 331.34 343 424.72 2.17 48.23 3.67 450.94     S&P 500 SPY     379   475 382.41 440 597.58 1.96 80 2.94 608     NASDAQ-100 QQQ     315   397.85 266.33 378.39 521.74 2.06 133.57 2.87 538     Technology SPDR XLK     128.93   161.97 124.44 179.52 234.11 0.68 141 2.33 241.44                                  

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