Diminished Volatility – as the month advanced, assisted the S&P retaining its status, which matters for the ‘faith keepers’ in ‘as goes January goes the year’ mantra. And that’s on-target to correlate again this year; which is a plus. We introduce yet-another ticker tonight; no video as S&P is a holding action.Growth is likely to slow; new policies won’t go entirely according to plans that any politician, including POTUS, have in-mind; but large portions may do so. Of course there are ‘historical’ aspects of a few matters that do drive instability not so much about stocks, but about the prospects of our society. (The mood out there remains defensive, and while that’s a contrariness that helps stocks, it doesn’t necessarily portend entire calm for certain sectors, or for society.)In the meantime, the market is indeed sort of ‘in the eye of a tiger’.. as Trump imposes orders that may or may not be constructive; and often do vary. There is support for many of his objectives; but many of them involved regulatory or policies revisions; Court challenges; or are just too premature to definitely say.Personally I disdain extremism of the right or of the left; and sometimes those two extremes are closer together than they think; related to hostility; panic as can be seen among those ‘probably’ overreacting; or just disengagement from working with friends and coworkers in-order to establish some middle ground.I’m in favor of middle ground; just as I was before any recent era elections. It is difficult when you’re dealing with people more likely to embrace friction than try to come to understandings. Sometimes I think it will be less intense to get a recalcitrant Putin to shed his imperialistic goals with Ukraine than to sort-out local people I know who are rigid and unwilling to contemplate less rigid views on anything. I’ve encountered this (perhaps you have as well); and realize it’s not calming much, just because the Inauguration is behind. So, ‘transactional’ President or not, we clearly have a lot of minefields still to navigate.Market X-ray: the minefields ahead include embracing Bitcoin, or not; having a peace negotiation between Ukraine & Russia, or not; deregulation within the Banking sector, or not; major initiative to expand Quantum Computing, or not; and of course calming mainstream society that fails to accept that if the prior Administration had exfiltrated those ‘actual’ criminal aliens, you might mostly be dealing with milder stress out there with certain aspects of current events.Government has failed reasonable deregulation; not just migration policies. It also failed in Energy policies; however one extreme to the other seems more of a simplistic approach, rather than well thought-out policy. Time will tell. One aspect that is fine; and needs a well-steered push, is Stargate of course.For now; we trek onward to January’s end: ‘as goes January goes the year’. That’s the idea; but definitely allow for detours. I’m not calling for ‘recession’; however I’m not oblivious to what happens globally, ‘if’ heavy tariffs ‘really’ are implemented widely, simply by recalling the 1930’s era.Do keep in mind (and that’s while the ‘all-nighter’ at JP Morgan couldn’t settle on an expectation) that we are dealing with a ‘transactional President’ who will present a hammer; and then use pliers to withdraw threats (or actual tariffs) upon achievement of generally-adequate ‘deals’. Again; we’re back to ‘Art of the Deal’ tactics; but there has to be modification, since everybody knows the approach by now. However it still can work. We’re only in early stages now.Bottom-line: chop leading to firmness at January month-end; providing no huge shockers with the parade of Q4 earnings reports that stream next week.More By This Author:Market Briefing For Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025
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