Markets Rally On Soft CPI, Good Q4 Bank Earnings


person using macbook pro on black tableImage Source: UnsplashA strong “relief rally” took the market by storm today, flipping a switch as of tepid Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers and healthy earnings from some of the biggest Wall Street banks. Investors are now sniffing out at least one more Fed rate cut between now and June; there’s no guarantee that a cut is coming, but more soft economic data may eventually prod the Fed to be convinced to follow its own dot-plot from late last year.The Dow grew +703 points, +1.65%, and it was the lowest percentage gain on the major indexes. The S&P 500 was up +107 points, +1.83%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the way, +466 points, +2.45%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 +44 points, +2.01%. All these indexes are now propped up into positive territory for the past five trading days, and each is up more than +1% year to date.

Beige Book Shows Mild, but Growing, Economy
 The Beige Book for January came out this afternoon from the U.S. Federal Reserve, with about as milquetoast a positive outlook as anyone might imagine. All 12 city regions saw slight economic upticks in the month, with a better-than-expected holiday season and continued strength in air travel offsetting slight declines in Construction and Manufacturing.Residential real estate was flat for the month, while commercial real estate was up somewhat. Agriculture seemed to be the hardest-hit sector for the month, mostly due to the avian flu hitting the supply of eggs. None of these things appear to threaten any economic activity with any sort of permanence; even the tariff and immigration deportations are expected to be mitigated as policies from the incoming Trump administration are enacted.

Goldman Sachs Clobbers Q4 Estimates
 We did check in on big banks reporting Q4 earnings ahead of today’s open, including JPMorgan (JPM – Free Report), Citigroup (C – Free Report) and Wells Fargo (WFC – Free Report) — they all made outsized gains for the quarter, except Wells Fargo which missed slightly on revenues but guided higher — but there is one investment bank that outshone them all earlier today: Goldman Sachs (GS – Free Report).Earnings per share at Goldman came in at $11.95 per share, volumes ahead of the $7.99 in the Zacks consensus. Revenues of $13.9 billion in the quarter zoomed past the $12.2 billion estimate. Investment banking equity underwriting grew by +98% year over year on another strong year for the stock market, with fees up +50.6%. Shares rose +6% on the day, swinging to +5.8% year to date.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Thursday
 We have another big day of economic data ahead for Thursday, including Weekly Jobless Claims, Retail Sales for the holiday shopping month of December, Import/Exports and the Philly Fed — all before the market opens. After the normal trading session begins, Business Inventories for November and the Homebuilder Confidence Index.More By This Author:Top Research Reports For Visa, AbbVie & Analog DevicesMarkets Mostly Up On To Start A New Trading Week Top Research Reports For Apple, Alphabet & Cisco

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