Image Source: PexelsTop of my list:
Source: Kalshi, accessed 1/3/2025.Would this be bad news? Well, yes. But worse yet given the incoming administration. For proof, I have but one word: “bleach”.Second:
Source: Kalshi, accessed 1/3/2025.For comparison, the June 2024 CBO Economic Outlook update projected $42.9 trillion gross Federal debt by end of FY2028 (September 2028). That means bettors think Trump will raise deficits by about $3.5 trillion relative to baseline.
Figure 1: Gross Federal debt (black), CBO projection under current law (light blue squares), implied by Kalshi 1/3/2025 (orange square). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates. Source: Treasury via FRED, CBO, Kalshi 1/3/2025.Remember, that’s over 4 years. A Bloomberg tabulation of Trump promises placed the cost at $11 trillion over ten years.More By This Author:The Price And Income Elasticities Of US Trade FlowsA Manufacturing Recession?Alternative Business Cycle Indicators As Of The Year’s Start
