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2024 marked GreenDot Stocks’ second full year of results. Our first year, 2023, was a good one, with the average pick outperforming the S&P 500 by a ridiculous 30.2%, with a 75% outperformance rate.2024 was a very good year for the stock market. The S&P 500 rose 23.3% before including dividends, its second straight year of 20%+ performance. But, unlike 2023, it was a very concentrated year, with just a few key large-cap stocks (NVDA, META, MSFT) driving much of the index’s returns.The performance of the GreenDot Stocks portfolio followed a similar pattern, with a handful of stocks accounting for most of the performance outcomes.
GreenDot Portfolio Results
Overall, the 26 picks in the portfolio returned an average of 20% in 2024, with the average pick outperforming the S&P 500 by 3.2%. 19 of the 26 (73%) delivered positive stock returns on the year, and 15 of 26 (58%) outperformed its S&P benchmark position.Breaking it down farther, the 16 “rollover picks” (stocks bought before 2024) averaged a return of 25.8%, outperforming the S&P by 2.7% on average, with 12 of them delivering positive stock gains (75%), but just 7 of them outperforming the benchmark (44%).The 10 stocks bought in 2024 averaged a return of 10.7% to the end of the year. This outperformed their matching S&P positions by an average of 4.2%. 7 of the 10 (70%) delivered positive stock returns, and 8 (80%) outperformed the benchmark.All-time, the 26 stocks recommended for buy have returned an average of 52.2% to date, outperforming a matching S&P investment by 21.8%. 21 of them (81%) have delivered positive investment gains, and 18 (69%) have outperformed their benchmark.
Brief Thoughts
It was always going to be very hard to maintain the ridiculous outperformance we saw in 2023, and I never expected to. 2024 was much more of the type of year I was expecting when developing the strategy for the site. Beating the benchmark by a few percentage points annually may not seem like much, but over a 25 year investing career, a few percentage points of outperformance every year can be worth millions of dollars. It matters – A LOT!We’ve had a few major hits in the portfolio. Hims & Hers (HIMS) is a triple in just over a year, and ServiceNow (NOW) has nearly tripled in just over 2 years. Global-E (GLBE), Atlassian (TEAM), and CrowdStrike (CRWD) before selling all doubled in value. Mercadolibre (MELI) is very close to a double.On the other hand, we’ve had very few big misses. I really screwed up the Celsius (CELH) buy, although I still believe that stock has potential at current valuations. However, that’s the ONLY stock we’ve taken more than a 15% loss on. As Warren Buffett’s first (and second!) rule of investing says: “never lose money”!I’ve also been really pleased with our hit rate. Peter Lynch said a “gold standard” accuracy rate (for picking winning stocks) was 60%. To date, GreenDot’s rate for picking stocks that outperform the market is 69%.In conclusion, the strategy continues to show that it works, that it limits downside and finds huge upside, and most importantly, that it beats the market.Find more detailed summaries of site performance in the tables below. Here’s to a great 2025 in all facets of life!
Portfolio Performance In Aggregate, 2023-Present
Picks Summary, All-Time
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