After the economy created 100,000 more jobs than expected, stocks and bonds decided that was bad news and promptly sold off. Makes sense, right? No, it really doesn’t although as I wrote about on Friday it is because the perception is now less help from the Fed.I have also been waiting to see if stocks poked to new highs first and then we could sell or if they fell below December’s low which would hasten a buying opportunity. The questions now are where to buy and when. I don’t think the decline has run its course, but I am not married to that. I just think the S&P 500 needs to breach 5800 at a minimum. 
Here is the 10-Year bond yield chart again. Friday saw yields really spike to 4.80% which gets ever closer to that 5% magnet, the highest level since early 2007. 
More than a few people have asked me why I don’t think the bull market could not have ended when I keep talking about the 2025 as being the year momentum died. First, credit spreads which can be viewed as the yields of junk bonds versus treasuries continue to tighten (shrink). Before bulls end, spreads typically widen (increase) signaling increasing stress in the financial system.Second, I can pull up a good number of charts that are not showing outperformance by defensive sectors which is what is usually seen as markets move from bull to bear. Below is the high beta ETF versus the low volatility. Even though the stock market is pulling back, high beta (aggressive) stocks are still doing better than low volatility stocks. 
Finally, check out how poorly consumer staples are performing against the S&P 500. In a bear market you would expect staples which are defensive to beat the S&P 500. 
The bottom line is that the window for a low is open. It could come in a day or a week or longer. We need to see less downside momentum and then an upside reversal. With Q4 earnings season here, there will be plenty of opportunities if the market is ready.On Friday we bought more TFLO. We sold EMB, GDX and AMLP.More By This Author:New Jobs Soar – Markets May Not Like That
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