USD/CAD Forecast: Is The Dam About To Break In The Canadian Dollar? -

USD/CAD Forecast: Is The Dam About To Break In The Canadian Dollar?

Jan 12, 2025Jeremy ParkinsonFinance0

Well, Friday was always going to be a wild one in the pair, and that of course was due to the fact that the jobs number came out of both countries at the same time.

And the big story here is that the US economy continues to look really strong as we added 265,000 jobs in the month of December instead of the expected 165,000.

This is obviously a big mover of interest rate expectations, and therefore the FX markets on the whole.

That overwhelms anything that happens in Canada. And of course, at the same time, we have the Canadian parliament essentially sitting on the sidelines due to recent political maneuvers in that country. With tariff talk and everything else going on, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Canadian dollar suddenly perks up. In fact, we have to start to ask the question whether or not the dam’s going to break at the 1.45 level. We have seen a stubbornness in the US dollar as it continues to rally every time it does pull back, so I think it’s probably only a matter of time. The 1.4350 level underneath will continue to be short-term support and the 1.42 level underneath there will be even more supported especially now that the 50-day EMA is racing toward there.

On a Break Above

Once we break above the 1.45 level, then it’s likely that the US dollar would target the 1.4750 level, which had been resistance a couple of times going way back. Expect a lot of volatility at this point and a lot of indecision, but quite frankly, the US dollar is probably going to be the place to be most of the beginning part of this year. There’s nothing on this chart that tells me that’s about to change.More By This Author:USD/CAD Forecast: Friday’s Critical Moves
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