We kicked off the day with Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, U-6 Unemployment Rate, and Wholesale Trade at 7:30 A.M., Fed Bowman Speech at 8:25 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions Prel, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel at 9:00 A.M., Fed Kugler Speech at 11:00 A.M, Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M., Consumer Credit and Used Car Prices MoM & YoY at 2:00 P.M.The USDA released its latest estimates for farm income in 2025 . Real net farm income is forecast at $180.1 billion in calendar year 2025, up $37.7 billion or 26% from 2024, and will be the 2nd highest on record if realized. This follows a $12.2 billion decrease in 2023 and a $43.2 billion decline in 2023. If realized , net farm income will be the 2nd largest on record in 2025,. The USDA forecasts that cash receipts from agriculture commodity sales will decrease by $1.8 billion to $515 billion in 2025, led by lower receipts for soybean and corn, while total animal/animal product receipts are projected to increase by $3.8 billion. Direct government payments are forecast to rise by $33.1 billion in 2025 to $42.4 billion, largely due to supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance to farmers and ranchers from the American Relief Act of 2025. Total production expenses are foremost to decrease by $2.5 billion to $450.4 billion. Finally, the farm sector balance sheet is forecast to reflect a $156.8 billion increase in equity, with assets rising #176.6 billion to $4.4 trillion, largely due to rising farm real estate values.
South American Weather Pattern Discussion
South AM Weather Broadly Favorable Following Soaking Rain This Week in Argentina:The South American pattern into late Feb is consistent with prior output and viewed as favorable. Dryness returns to Argentina into late next week, but this follows rainfall of 1.6-4.9” in Southern Cordoba, Buenos Aires, and key parts of Santa Fe and Entre Rios this week. Dryness is also forecast into late next week in Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais, and this will allow fieldwork to accelerate there. Ag Resources (ARC) also notes welcome precipitation returns to NE Argentina in the 6-10 day period. Drought in N Argentina remains present, and crop ratings there continue to fall. Seed size/weight will have been stabilized across Argentina’s southern ag belt. Focus soon turns to conditions in Parana and in N Brazil exclusively. Regular rain will be needed throughout March & April to keep trend safrinha corn yield potential intact.Central US Pattern DiscussionUS Pattern Stagnant into Late February; Abnormal Dryness Appears in Southern Plains: The Central US pattern into Feb 20th is consistent with previous output. Meaningful precipitation favors the Delta/Southeast and eastern Midwest, where additional moisture worth .50-3.00” favors LA, AR, TN, KY, and OH. This pattern (wet east/dry west) continues into week 2. The absence of moisture across the US Plains is typical during winter, but finally abnormal dryness has appeared in the US Drought Monitor in TX/OK. Regular moisture will be needed there in spring. Otherwise, US weather headlines this week center on the lack of Plains snow cover and another round of bitterly cold temps due there 11-14. Minimum lows OK, KS, and NE are projected in a range of 5-18 degrees. Lites snow is forecast there Feb 11-12, but coverage will be followed closely.
On The Corn Front
Corn Recovers; Strong Export Demand Intact; Ag Crop Rating Declines:World corn markets ended firm on Thursday as both the bulls and bears lack leverage within a range of $4.80-$5.00 spot. Brazilian safrinha seeding dates and Mar-Apr weather in Mato Grosso is critical with respect to changing supply & demand during summer. Whether tariffs are placed on Mexico and Canada March 1st is a big deal. ARC notes March CBOT has yet to post newer highs, and this is needed in the short run to prevent a bout of profit taking. However global supplies are not abundant. Argentina’s crop this week is rated at just 25% GD/EX, vs. 28% last week and vs. 31% a year ago in early Feb. US export sales in the week ending Jan 30th totaled a sizable 58 Mil Bu, while sales must average only 21Mil/week to meet the USDA’s forecast. USDA in its Feb report will keep 24/25 US end stocks at 1.5 Bil Bu. It’s a managed fund net long estimated at 380-385,000 contracts that’s a concern, but ARC doubts a lasting bear trend can be sustained until Mar-Apr weather in Brazil and US trade policy is better understood. Trade range of $4.75-$5.10, basis May. Catch up on sales in the market.More By This Author:DOGE & Deficits. The Corn & Ethanol Report Funds & Markets Following the Master Negotiator. The Corn & Ethanol ReportTariff Pause & South American Weather Supportive Near-Term. The Corn & Ethanol Report
