SPX futures rose to 6079.80, an 80% retracement of the decline from 6120.91 on January 31. The Cycles Model suggests the SPX may be at an imminent reversal point today. Should that be so, SPX may decline beneath its 50-day Moving Average at 5994.34, issuing a sell signal. Retail buyers have been the driving force in keeping the SPX above the 50-day for the past two weeks. Retail participation has been greater than at the Dot-Com bubble in 2000. Yet the all-time high remains at January 24.Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6050.00. Long gamma may begin above 6080. Short gamma dominates beneath 6035.00.ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are slightly higher despite heavyweights such as including Ford and Qualcomm slumping in premarket trading after disappointing earnings while tech underperformed on mixed Mag7/Semis pre-mkt price action. As of 8:15am, S&P 500 futures were little changed after erasing an early gain fueled by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comment that the Trump administration is focusing on bringing down the Treasury 10-year yield. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were unchanged. Bond yields and the USD finally reverse recent losses and rise this morning while commodities are stronger across all of Ags, Energy, and Metals ex-Precious. Scott Bessent said that the Administration is focused on lowering the 10Y yield rather than the Fed Funds rates; the best way to decrease yields is through a lower budget deficit. In other news, HON is splitting into 3 companies. Today’s macro focus is on Jobless data and the BOE decision. The Fed speaker slate include’s Waller (2:30pm) and Logan (5:10pm), and we get earnings from Amazon after the close.” 
VIX futures rose to 16.15 overnight, then settled back to the flat line. The Cycles Model anticipates a burst of trending strength by this weekend.The February 12 options chain shows Max Pain at 17.00. However, neither short-nor long gamma show a positive sentiment.
TNX has begun to rise out of its Master Cycle low and trendline at 44.00. What is unrecognized by many is the Head & Shoulders formation at the highs. Today’s auction shows $185 billion in 4-and 8-week T-bills will be auctioned.Investing.com observes, “President Trump’s comments and executive orders have roiled markets and investor expectations, but from the vantage of the Treasury market, a relative calm prevails. This could change, of course, but for now, key yields for government bonds have been flat to slightly lower in recent days.The serene profile for Treasury yields is surprising, given the firehose of news updates on topics that, in theory, are relevant to market expectations, inflation, and economic growth. It’s only Wednesday, but Trump so far this week has launched a trade war only to dial it down, offering what may be a temporary reprieve to plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico (a new 10% tariff on China imports still applies).”
Bitcoin remains beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 98750.00, on a sell signal. The next support is the 100-day Moving Average at 94780.44, followed by the 5-month trendline near 90000.00. Most Bitcoin investors are sanguine about the volatility and may be unprepared for a sudden lurch downward that the Cycles Model anticipates over the weekend.More By This Author:Market Analysis – Thursday, Jan. 30Market Analysis – Friday, Jan. 24Market Analysis – Friday, Jan. 10
