Some of my frequent commenters know that I recently returned from a visit to Southeast Asia. In this post, I would like to present a little energy-related information about this part of the world. Most of my information is from published energy reports, but a little is from my visit to Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. I have included these countries in my Southeast Asia totals, plus Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and (to the extent I could find the data), amounts for a few other small countries included in the grouping used by the United Nations in its “Southeast Asia” grouping.While Southeast Asia shares most of the energy problems of the rest of the world, it seems to me that this region is somewhat better placed to handle the energy shortfalls that lie ahead than many other regions. Southeast Asia’s warm, wet climate is helpful, as is its supply of coal, particularly in Indonesia. Many of the people in this part of the world are used to living in cramped quarters–three generations in a large one-room home, for example. Abundant forests provide a renewable source of energy. Religious traditions help provide order. These factors may work together to allow the economies of these countries to continue to some extent, even as much of the rest of the world pushes in the direction of collapse.
[1] Southeast Asia is finding it must import ever-larger amounts of oil to meet the needs of its growing economies.
Figure 1. Oil production and consumption are from the 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute. Oil imports are calculated by subtraction.
Figure 1 shows that Southeast Asia produces a little oil itself. This oil production (blue line) reached a peak in 2000 and has fallen since then. Such a pattern is common among the countries of the world–oil production starts falling once the easily extracted oil is removed.Southeast Asia’s oil consumption (orange line) has generally been growing. Up until 1993, the area produced enough oil for its own needs. More recently, Southeast Asia’s oil needs have been met through increasing imports of oil. Thus, Southeast Asia has been a net importer of oil for over 30 years. With reduced travel related to Covid in 2020 and 2021, there was a dip in consumption and imported oil in these years. By 2023, however, consumption was back above 2019 levels, and imports were higher than in 2019.
[2] Natural gas production in Southeast Asia reached a peak in 2015, and it has been declining ever since.
The situation with natural gas production is similar to that of oil. Southeast Asia’s natural gas supply reached a peak in 2015, and it has been falling ever since.
Figure 2. Natural gas production and consumption are from the 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute. Natural gas imports are calculated by subtraction.
Figure 2 shows that once natural gas production (blue line) began to decline, Southeast Asian natural gas consumption (orange line) started to flatten out and even decline a bit. Natural gas exports began to decline, as well, beginning more than a decade before the peak in production was reached. Some of the natural gas exports are liquefied natural gas exports, under long term contracts. These cannot easily be cut back because of inadequate production.Today, in many parts of the world, there is high demand for natural gas to balance out electricity generated by wind and solar. Southeast Asia, which has a declining supply of natural gas available for export, cannot provide much natural gas to help the countries dealing with this intermittency problem. But, as we will see, Southeast Asia itself seems to have mostly stayed away from wind and solar. This is a plus.It seems likely that both oil and natural gas extraction within Southeast Asia will continue to decline. This is a worry for the future.
[3] Southeast Asia’s coal supply has been growing, helping to support its industry and exports.
Coal production is still growing in Southeast Asia, with Indonesia being the primary source of production.
Figure 3. Coal production and consumption are from the 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute. Coal imports are calculated by subtraction.
A recent report says that coal production in Indonesia in 2024 increased by 7.1% over production in 2023, showing that growth in coal production continues. Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are all importers of coal, much of which likely comes from Indonesia.
[4] Southeast Asia’s per capita energy consumption has been rising, due to increasing coal consumption and the addition of other types of energy, made possible by fossil fuels.
Figure 4. Per capita energy consumption by type, based on data of the 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute.
Hydroelectricity seems to be the single largest category of “All Other” energy supply. Building dams to produce hydro-electric power has been made possible by the availability of coal to produce concrete and steel.Another major category of “All Other” seems to be the burning of wood chips.
Figure 5. Place in Vietnam where trees on the side of a mountain were being clearcut to provide wood chips. We were told that the area would be reforested with a rapidly growing species that would again be clearcut.
A third category of “All Other” energy production is geothermal power. Both Indonesia and the Philippines generate electric power using geothermal energy. Geothermal works best when a country has volcanic mountains that can provide the high temperatures required. Southeast Asia seems to have more than its share of volcanoes.Wind turbines and solar panels seem to be relatively little used in this part of the world. Nuclear does not seem to be used at all in this part of the world.This combination of All Other energy supply seems to be more stable than the more common “wind and solar” version of All Other energy supply. Also, nuclear electricity now seems to have a uranium supply problem, as I discussed in a recent post. It is a high-tech solution that poor countries, such as those in Southeast Asia, are likely to have considerable problems trying to emulate.
[5] Southeast Asia has multiple advantages that allow its population to get along with relatively little energy, if fossil fuels become less available.
As mentioned in the introduction, the mild climate of Southeast Asia allows people to get along without heating or cooling their homes. In fact, homes don’t need to be very substantial if they don’t need insulation. They can easily be rebuilt with local materials.On our trip, we saw several one-room homes in which up to three generations lived together. Of course, people everywhere would like fancy homes with lots of rooms, indoor bathrooms, and heating and cooling. But these things require fossil fuels, both to initially build and to maintain. If people can learn to live in very modest housing, it greatly reduces the fossil fuel energy needs of an economy.It seems to me that if the world is heading in the direction of not enough fossil fuels, Southeast Asia is a region that can get along without much harm, even on less fuel than is available today. Farming seems to be done with little use of fuel, right now. Many families are used to living in shared living spaces. Daily markets, selling meat, including live chickens and ducks, seem to be common.Based on my calculations, the per-capita energy consumption of Southeast Asia is about half that of China and about 21% of the US’s average per-capita energy consumption.Economies in warm, wet climates have an advantage because agriculture can be done year-around. Without fossil fuels, Southeast Asia would not be able to support as large a population as today, but it seems likely that these countries could still support a substantial, if lower, population. The Garden of Eden mentioned in the Book of Genesis in the Bible seemed to have some of the characteristics of Southeast Asian countries today. If “warm and wet” was a solution in the early days, it may be a solution in the future.
[6] Southeast Asia has nowhere near the scale of energy supplies to replace China, with its huge industrial output.
Figure 6. Total electricity production of Southeastern Asia compared to that of China (excluding Hong Kong), based on data of the 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute.
China’s electricity production in 2023 was 23.0 times its electricity production in 1985. Southeast Asia’s electricity production in 2023 was 12.8 times its electricity production in 1985. Thus, China’s growth rate has been close to twice as fast as Southeast Asia.While China’s rapid growth has been impressive, it is very hard to maintain. Southeast Asia’s slower growth curve, which is still somewhat rising, would seem to be easier to maintain. If it does start to fall, it will hopefully be a slower fall.
[7] Indonesia, which is part of Southeast Asia, is a world leader in coal production.
Coal tends to be an inexpensive source of heat and electricity and is essential in making steel. The industrial revolution around the world was started with the use of coal. Coal is still used heavily in manufacturing. While the wealthy countries of the world talk a great deal about carbon dioxide and climate change, the poorer countries of the world–including those in Southeast Asia–continue to use coal, to the extent it is available.Worldwide, China is number one in coal production (93.10 exajoules), according to the 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy. India is in second place, with production of 16.65 exajoules. Indonesia is close behind in third place, with coal production of 15.73 exajoules. The advantage that Indonesia has is that its population (281,000) is much lower than that of India (1.4 billion), so that its coal-benefit relative to population is much greater than that of India.I don’t think that we know how long coal production will continue to grow. Theoretically, how long production will continue to grow is tied to the amount of coal reserves, but it is questionable whether today’s published reserve numbers are very useful in determining the quantity available at a price customers are willing to pay. The 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy report shows quite low coal reserves for Southeast Asia, and quite high coal reserves for the US, Russia, and Australia. This same report has a note at the top of the page showing coal reserves that says, “The methodology and timing of updating reserve numbers is under review.” The authors of the report seem to be saying, “Expect big revisions of these reserve numbers in the future.”
[8] People of Southeast Asia seem to have a tradition of being hard working and co-operative.
One report describes the work culture of Southeast Asia as “Community oriented, with respect for seniors, and flexibility.” The same report indicates that maintaining a calm demeanor and not showing anger in public are important in countries like Thailand and Indonesia. The article indicates that smiling plays a critical role in communication, keeping the interactions positive.My husband and I were impressed by how happy the Buddha figures seemed to be.
Figure 7. Happy Buddha statue in southern Vietnam.
Religions seem to help provide a safety net for the poor. Working as a priest gives an option for income for those who would otherwise be unemployed and are willing to study.
[9] The world economy, including Southeast Asia, is already beginning to encounter oil shortfalls. One way they affect the economy is through less growth in long-distance tourism.
There is a temptation to believe that the tourist trade will grow, allowing the economies of Southeast Asia to grow at the same time. However, it is becoming apparent that this doesn’t necessarily work well in a world struggling with inadequate oil supplies.We saw many examples of buildings, including entire resorts, that had been started and apparently abandoned. In particular, Cambodia seemed to have many buildings that were started as Chinese investments. We were told that these structures had been left without being completed, in or around 2020.The northern part of Vietnam seemed to be experiencing some of the same difficulty. This partly completed building is from Da Nang, a coastal city in what was formerly North Vietnam.
Figure 8. A building in the Da Nang, Vietnam, area that seemed to have been abandoned before it was completed.
[10] We will have to wait and see how things really turn out.
Southeast Asia seems to be able to feed an awful lot of people with its rice fields and fish farms, operated with very little fossil fuel input.
Figure 9. A rice farm in Vietnam. White “flags” are to scare away birds.There are a lot of pieces of the story we don’t understand. Without enough oil, people may need to stay closer to home. But quite a few people in warm, humid climates may be able to get along, for quite a while, with very modest living arrangements.More By This Author:An Energy And The Economy Forecast For 2025
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