Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of December 4 And December 11


Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of December 4

       

December 4

       

Factory Orders – October

-0.4%

1.4

-0.4

 

Durable Goods Orders

-1.2

2.0

   

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

0.8

             

December 5

       

International Trade – October

-$47.5B

-43.5

-47.1

           

PMI Services Index

54.7

54.7

54.7

 

ISM Services – November

59.6

60.1

59.0

           

December 6

       

ADP Employment Report – November

205K

235.0

192

           

Productivity – Q3 (r)

3.3%

3.0(p)

3.3

 

Unit Labor Costs

0.2

0.5

0.3

           

December 7

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

240K%

238

240

 

Consumer Credit – October

$18.0B

20.8

17.6

           

December 8

       

Nonfarm Payrolls – November

250K

261K

185

 

Private

245

252

183

 

Manufacturing

25

24

20

 

Unemployment

4.0%

4.1

4.1

 

Average Workweek

34.4Hr

34.4

34.4

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.0

0.3

           

Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Dec (p)

99.0

98.5

98.8

 

Wholesale Inventories – October (r)

-0.4

-0.4(p)

-0.1

           

Week of December 11

       

December 12

       

Producer Price Index – November

0.3%

0.4

   

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.2

             

Treasury Budget – November

-$135.0B

-63.2

             

December 13

       

Consumer Price Index – November

0.4%

0.1

   

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

             

FMOC

1.375

1.125

             

December 14

       

Retail Sales – October

0.5%

0.2

   

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.7

0.1

   

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.5

0.3

             

Export Prices –  November

0.3%

0.0

   

Import Prices

0.8

0.2

             

Business Inventories – October

-0.1%

0.0

             

December 15

       

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

20.0

19.2

             

Industrial Production – November

0.3%

0.9

   

Capacity Utilization

77.2

77.0

     

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